If Trump loses, will Bitcoin fall to $50,000?
Let me say the conclusion first: I think it is highly unlikely.
If Trump is not elected, it may lead to a short-term correction in Bitcoin, but it won't have a significant impact on the long-term trend.
Because the rise and fall of the market is more about emotions and capital competition, rather than purely determined by the election results.
The key still lies in economic and monetary policy; the Federal Reserve is now following a medium to long-term easing route.
So even if Trump is not elected, the trend of monetary easing in the market still exists, which is good news for Bitcoin.
So who is really in the lead now?
On some prediction platforms, Trump is currently leading, but polling results show Harris is ahead.
From the prediction platform data:
On the prediction platform Polymarket, Harris's odds have risen from 33% on October 30 to about 44.8%.
Trump's odds have dropped to the lowest point in two weeks at 55.3%. This indicates that confidence in Trump's victory has weakened.
And on Kalshi, a U.S. betting platform, the situation is similar.
Harris's odds have risen to 49%, only 2 percentage points lower than Trump.
This may be because some traders are investing in Harris to hedge their bets on Trump.
Many people pay attention to the election because they believe that Trump's election is favorable for cryptocurrencies, while Harris's election may lead to a decline in Bitcoin.
The recent market decline is actually a reaction of investors feeling uncertain about the election results.
From the U.S. polling data:
Currently, Harris is slightly ahead of Trump.
Especially in Iowa, Harris leads with a support rate of 47% to 44%, which is a bit unexpected since Iowa has always been a solid red state.
Not only that, but Harris is also slightly ahead in Nevada, North Carolina, and Wisconsin, while Trump maintains an advantage in Arizona and has caught up with Harris in Pennsylvania.
So from the polling data, the election situation is very tense now, and it is really hard to say who will win in the end.
If Harris is elected, will Bitcoin crash?
I think it's highly likely that it will drop first and then rise.
If Trump wins this time, Bitcoin may continue to rise in the short term.
However, if Harris wins, Bitcoin may experience a correction, but that doesn’t mean it will decline in the long term.
Because no matter who is elected, U.S. fiscal policy will expand, just with different intensities.
Now the Federal Reserve is following a medium to long-term monetary easing route, so even if Trump is not elected, the trend of monetary easing in the market still exists, which will benefit the rise of Bitcoin prices later on.
In the long run, the election has little impact on the market.
The election is just one aspect of market trends, not everything. It is not the only factor determining the long-term trend of Bitcoin.
The rise and fall of the market is more about emotions and capital competition, rather than purely determined by the election results.
The trends in economic and monetary policy are more important than the election results, especially regarding market liquidity.
Even if Harris is elected, the Federal Reserve's monetary policy will not change because of the election.
Even if Trump is elected, many of his promises will not be easy to fulfill. For example, it would not be simple for him to fire the SEC chairman, as sufficient reasons are needed.
And preventing the government from selling Bitcoin is even more difficult, as these assets belong to different independent sectors, not under presidential control.
Moreover, both Bitcoin and Ethereum spot ETFs were approved during the Democratic administration, so there are currently no signs that the Democratic Party will hinder the development of cryptocurrencies.
So overall, even if Harris is elected, the crypto sector will not suffer a significant blow; the key still lies in economic and monetary policy.
The next key point is whether the U.S. economy will enter a recession, whether inflation will fluctuate, and whether black swan events will occur.
