Original title: The Trump-Betting Whale Speaks Out: "I Have Absolutely No Political Agenda"
Original author: Alexander Osipovich, THE WALL STREET JOURNAL
Original translation: zhouzhou, BlockBeats
Editor's note: This article describes a French trader who calls himself Théo, who bet on Trump's victory on the prediction market Polymarket, betting more than $30 million that Trump would win by a large margin. Théo insisted that he had no political motives and was only doing it to make money, but because of the huge amount of money, he could hardly withdraw these bets and took on huge risks.
The following is the original content (reorganized for readability):
The mysterious person betting over $30 million on Trump's victory stated: 'I do not intend to manipulate the U.S. election.'
The mysterious person betting over $30 million on Trump's victory wants the public to understand that he has no intention of manipulating the U.S. election. 'My goal is just to make money,' said the man who calls himself 'Théo' in a Zoom interview with Wall Street Journal reporters earlier this week. He introduced himself as a Frenchman who has lived in the U.S. and previously worked as a trader at several banks.
Théo's massive bets on Polymarket have attracted widespread attention; this prediction market is not available to Americans. Last month, the Wall Street Journal reported that four accounts systematically purchased bets on Trump's victory on the platform, raising the odds of Trump defeating Vice President Kamala Harris. Blockchain data shows that the funds for these accounts all came from the same cryptocurrency exchange, sparking discussions about the motives of the 'Trump whale' behind it.
Last week, Polymarket, headquartered in New York, stated that they had contacted the 'Trump whale' and launched an investigation into the bets. The company described the bettor as a French finance professional with extensive trading experience.
While attending a rally in Green Bay, Wisconsin, the shadow of former President Trump is cast on an American flag. (Photo: Brendan McDermid/Reuters)
Trump's shadow on the American flag: the 'whale' in the shadows.
Polymarket stated in a statement: 'Based on our investigation, we learned that this person took a directional stance based on personal views of the election. The details of Polymarket's statement align with Théo's self-description, and he confirmed that he has communicated with members of Polymarket's legal and compliance team.
Currently, election observers are meticulously analyzing various data in an effort to predict the outcome of what is considered the most intense and closely contested presidential election in U.S. history. Prediction markets, which allow people to bet on various potential events, have become one of the avenues to forecast election results. Historical research shows that the candidate with the highest odds in prediction markets shortly before the election typically ends up winning the presidency.
However, the emergence of the 'Trump whale' has exposed the limitations of current prediction markets: despite a significant increase in trading volume on Polymarket this year, the market size remains relatively small and is still easily manipulated by a wealthy and outspoken investor through multimillion-dollar bets.
Théo: The mysterious bets of the anonymous whale.
After an article about his betting was published on October 18, Théo contacted the Wall Street Journal via email. To prove he is indeed the 'Trump whale' on Polymarket, the paper asked him to place a bet on whether Taylor Swift would announce her pregnancy in 2024—one of many non-political small bets on the platform. Minutes later, the Polymarket website showed that an account named 'Theo 4' had indeed placed a small bet on Swift's pregnancy.
During the Zoom call, Théo, dressed in a gray Nike sweatshirt and sporting a neatly trimmed short beard, spoke in slightly accented English, stating that he made the betting decision after analyzing polls that underestimated Trump's support, denying speculation that he was creating momentum for Trump through his bets.
Théo refused to reveal his real name, and the Wall Street Journal was unable to verify all the details of his story. Although he claimed that these bets were made with his own funds, the authenticity could not be determined, nor could any connections to political organizations or Trump allies be ruled out.
'I absolutely have no political agenda,' Théo wrote in his initial email.
Théo stated that he is unwilling to disclose his name because his friends and children are unaware of his wealth situation, and he does not want them to know about his bets on Trump. He describes himself as an experienced financial investor willing to risk tens of millions of dollars in highly confident trades, but political betting is a completely new field for him.
Théo said he started paying attention to U.S. polling data earlier this year, discovering that many polls from 2016 and 2020 underestimated Trump's support. He believes that if Trump exceeds expectations again this year, he will defeat Kamala Harris. Théo also mentioned the 'shy Trump supporter effect'—that some voters are unwilling to disclose their support for Trump to polling organizations.
'I know a lot of Americans who would vote for Trump but wouldn't tell you,' Théo said dismissively when discussing adjustments made by polling organizations to correct issues from 2016 and 2020, claiming he 'hasn't seen any substantive changes.'
Théo, who made a huge bet on Trump: confidence and concerns.
In two weeks, Théo sent dozens of emails to Wall Street Journal reporters, criticizing what he perceives as biased mainstream media polling favoring Harris. During the Zoom call, he claimed that media supported by the Democrats are paving the way for social unrest by inflating the competitive nature of the campaign, while he anticipates an overwhelming victory for Trump.
Théo expressed surprise at the public's interest in his trading; he started making low-key bets in August, purchasing millions of dollars in Trump victory contracts under the username Fredi 9999. At that time, Trump's and Harris's odds on Polymarket were nearly even.
To avoid sharp price fluctuations, Théo spread his bets over several days. Nevertheless, as the bet amounts increased, Théo noticed that other traders would avoid quoting when purchasing from Fredi 9999, making it difficult for him to place bets at favorable prices. As a result, he created three additional accounts in September and October to conceal his buying activity.
If Trump wins and achieves the overwhelming victory he anticipates, Théo could gain over $80 million in profits, doubling his investment. His main bet is on Trump winning the Electoral College, and he has additionally wagered millions on Trump winning the popular vote—a scenario many observers consider unlikely. Moreover, he also bet on Trump winning in swing states such as Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin.
If Harris wins the election, Théo could lose the vast majority of his $30 million—this constitutes a large part of his liquid assets.
Due to his massive position on Polymarket, he is almost unable to close his positions without affecting the market. According to data from Polymarket Analytics, the four 'Trump whale' accounts collectively hold about 25% of the contracts for Trump's Electoral College victory and over 40% of the contracts for winning the popular vote.
Théo admitted that he feels nervous. He is confident in Trump's victory, estimating the probability between 80% and 90%, but he is also concerned that last-minute breaking news could affect the outcome of his bets.
'Anything could happen at any time,' Théo said.
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