The two most important events this week:

Retail investors' fantasies are:

- Harris elected, Bitcoin plummets 📉 50%

- Trump elected, Bitcoin surges 📈 100,000

1. The election results on November 5 may be announced that night. Remember the last time Trump was elected, the market dropped from a limit up to limit down, and many people were wiped out in one day.

2. The interest rate meeting from November 6 to November 7, if rates are cut, it might lead to a wave of increases; if not cut, it will likely follow the previous trend. Based on non-farm payroll data, a 25 basis point cut is expected this time, but combining these two events, the situation becomes complicated, and there could be a significant fluctuation.

The structure of this Bitcoin market cycle is clear; whether Trump or Harris is elected, it will not damage the market structure. The funds are responsible for the market trend, for maximizing their own interests, not for Trump or Harris.

So after the election results come out on the afternoon of the 6th, the market's fluctuations may be far below most people's expectations. This has been verified countless times, such as on the night of rate cuts, or when Trump attended the Bitcoin conference, etc.

The most likely scenario is that after the election results are announced, a spike up/down occurs. Then the market will continue to move as it should. The structure of the Bitcoin market has been completed through half a year of declines/oscillation washing/pressure gathering/accumulation, and will not be disrupted by a single event.

The benefit of the U.S. election for major players is to utilize it both positively and negatively, increasing volatility and creating market divergence; it provides a story to tell. The U.S. election is, after ETFs, the most favorable tool for major players to tell stories.