Bitcoin has fallen below the real price — an important metric indicating the average purchase cost of all circulating coins. Such a decline has weakened hopes for a quick recovery to $72,000, as breaking below the real price often indicates increased selling pressure.
With the current price of Bitcoin at $68,404, continuing to trade below this important threshold indicates a prolonged bearish trend. The question is, how much deeper can BTC go?
On-chain support for Bitcoin is weakening, whales are selling.
On October 20, BTC fell below the real price, and in 3 days, the value of this cryptocurrency slid from $69,022 down to $66,611. Then, on October 28, the real price of Bitcoin dropped below the spot value. A day later, BTC rose to $72,708, raising expectations for a historical breakout.
However, that has not happened. Data from CryptoQuant records the real price of Bitcoin as $69,352, higher than the current value.
Typically, when the real price is below the market price, it acts as an on-chain support level, implying potential price increases. But with the current price higher, the chances of BTC reclaiming $72,000 in the short term seem limited.
Another indicator suggesting Bitcoin may struggle to recover is the net cash flow of large holders. This metric considers the activity of addresses holding between 0.1% and 1% of the total circulating supply.
When the net cash flow of major holders is positive, whales are accumulating, and prices may rise. However, based on data from IntoTheBlock, net cash flow has decreased, meaning whales have sold more than they bought in the past seven days.
If the current situation continues, it will reinforce the weakening scenario of the real price, opening up the potential for another decline.
Bitcoin price prediction: Retreat to $66,000.
The current price of Bitcoin is 7% lower than the recent local peak, facing the risk of breaking the upward channel on the daily chart.
This pattern is formed by two upward trend lines, indicating resistance at the top and support at the bottom. Currently, Bitcoin is fluctuating close to the support line at $67,941.
If BTC falls below this support level, the price may slide down to $66,575 and then to $62,826 in a more bearish scenario.
Conversely, if the real price of Bitcoin slips below the current value, it could signal a trend reversal. In that case, BTC could rise to $72,770 and establish a new all-time high.
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