2024-11-03 Viewpoint Summary

I haven't written articles in the past few days, I've been pushing forward with those tools and the progress of new indicators. At this time, everyone's emotions are very sensitive and fragile, so it's not appropriate to say anything more.

We still need to respect market rules; FOMO has an end, and it's best not to take the last baton.

Due to the delayed communication from the plaza, I can't publicly say where to bottom fish because the positions for left-side bottom fishing are basically all at the needle; the price movement is too fast. If incorrect, you must exit immediately and switch positions. The plaza is slow to respond, and if it encounters a heavily leveraged player, maintaining synchronized operations may result in being directly taken away. Therefore, the plaza is more about indicating potential tops and potential pullback dates derived from volume-price-time analysis, and providing early risk warnings. I don't expect you to hold your position to take a short; I just hope that you really have moved your stop-loss level up as advised. A slight profit retracement is better than a loss or being trapped. But I really am quite annoying in this regard, as every time I indicate dates and risks, it coincides with the peak of FOMO emotions.

Let's look back at the chart; for Bitcoin at the 4-hour level, the method to confirm a stop in the decline has been mentioned many times before, and I will reiterate it here. Without relying on any indicators, when the price breaks below the upward trend line or moves sideways out of the trend line, if it is suppressed by the trend line, the probability of downward movement is greater than that of upward movement. After breaking through support, being suppressed by support will lead to a drop to the next support level, and if the rebound is suppressed again, it will continue downward. This process may also be accompanied by accelerated declines; these are all probabilities. All methods are based on probabilities; we don't guess the direction but rather bet on probabilities. We pursue which direction has a higher probability of movement and take small stop-losses on that side. Even if we get stopped out, the trade itself is still a correct trade.

To confirm a stop in the decline for Bitcoin, it needs to form a 4-hour double bottom above 677, and to restore a bullish pattern, it needs to stay above 687 and close a 4-hour line. If neither of these can be achieved, it will continue to decline.

As for Ethereum, the daily chart shows this tightening triangle; whether it breaks below the trend line and gets suppressed into a short or breaks above and tests without breaking the trend line, that is your entry point, and the stop-loss can be set at +0.5% above the line.