QCP: The bearish sentiment for BTC and ETH continues to rise, and the election may witness a 'buy the rumor, sell the news' scenario

【QCP: The bearish sentiment for BTC and ETH continues to rise, and the election may witness a 'buy the rumor, sell the news' scenario】Golden Finance reports that QCP published a weekend summary stating that Thursday's core PCE data was slightly above expectations (actual year-on-year growth of 2.7%, expected 2.6%). In contrast, Friday's non-farm payroll data (NFP) unexpectedly fell short of expectations (actual 12,000, expected 110,000), leading to a rebound in the US dollar index (DXY) back to the 104 level. Bitcoin touched an all-time high on Tuesday night, trading up to 73.6k, driven by market expectations for election week. Despite Bitcoin's outstanding performance this week, Ethereum remained relatively flat, failing to break through the 2.7k level. Against a backdrop of strong ETF inflows, Bitcoin saw a net inflow of over $2.1 billion this week. Although Bitcoin fell below $69,000 on Friday, we still see strong interest in the market, with total open interest for BTC futures and BTC options remaining high at $40.65 billion and $25.3 billion, respectively. In the upcoming election week, the short-term implied volatility for BTC and ETH remains above 72 volatility, with bearish options skew continuing to rise as traders increase their downward protection. Although Trump is considered a strong candidate for the next U.S. president, his odds on Polymarket have fallen from a high of 66% to 57%, while Harris's support rate stands at 43%. Regardless of the outcome, we believe the election will witness a 'buy the rumor, sell the news' scenario, similar to the situation after the Nashville Bitcoin conference.