Is the current cryptocurrency market a bull market? When will the next bull market in cryptocurrencies be?
The bull market in cryptocurrencies can be divided into three phases: early, mid, and late.
2023 is a typical early bull market, characterized by BTC's daily line standing above MA200. Historical data shows that this event occurs every year prior to a halving.
2024 will be the fourth halving of BTC, and with multiple favorable factors such as BTC spot ETFs and the interest rate reduction cycle, there will be a significant influx of capital. At the same time, the coins on exchanges have been moved to wallets by holders, resulting in a long-term state of currency shortage in the market. Therefore, 2024 will be the main wave of this bull market, and we will see a strong bullish trend.
In 2025, the market will begin to oscillate. Referring to 2021, the late bull market carries more risks than rewards, and it will be a gradual process of reaching a peak, with significant volatility.
To summarize, before the halving in 2024, BTC prices will be at relatively low levels. Also, do not envy those who bought at ten or twenty thousand, because the risk levels at that time are completely different from now. As Jesse Livermore said, he prefers to buy a stock when it breaks above its previous high, as he can earn 20 to 30 points of profit with almost no risk.
Of course, true holders do not care about short-term prices. Can you believe that a large portion of BTC holders has an average cost of around 300, and recently it rose to 70,000, yielding over 230 times profit while remaining unmoved? The power of faith is limitless; if someone still thinks BTC is a scam, then this wealth transfer is not truly over.
However, after several bull markets in 2017 and 2021, each halving cycle sees Bitcoin surge significantly, often by several tens of times, with favorable conditions such as halvings, interest rate cuts, and ETF approvals.
Under such favorable conditions, why not be bullish?
I am not looking at my emotions but at the patterns that have lasted for over a decade. If you've been hit once and don't feel the pain, how can you not feel it after being hit several times?
Money comes like the wind, not guessed by one’s feelings.
I am merely summarizing historical patterns. There are no personal emotions involved.
I want to tell my friends in the market to cherish the present, cherish now. Good times are few, but standing on the shoulders of giants of the era, this wave of wealth will also make you unforgettable for a lifetime.
