The cryptocurrency bull market needs an engine, but the Bitcoin bull market only needs liquidity
In September, the first interest rate cut took place. According to the Federal Reserve, the balance sheet reduction is still ongoing, which will neutralize the liquidity released by the interest rate cut, so the current rate is still neutral.
However, the overall direction of interest rate cuts or gradual quantitative easing will definitely not reverse;
In November, regardless of who wins the election, the funds avoiding election volatility will return to the market, gradually providing liquidity to the market;
In November's Federal Reserve meeting, the interest rate is highly likely to be cut by another 0.25 percentage points, and it is very possible to announce a slowdown in balance sheet reduction, or even end it, officially starting the quantitative easing cycle, which will significantly boost market confidence.
After that, interest rates will continue to drop to 3.25% by 2025, or even lower, with continuous liquidity influx in the market. Whether in the stock market or Bitcoin, there will be a sustained upward trend;
As for where the peak of the bull market is, the specific time cannot be predicted, but whenever the quantitative easing cycle ends and the total M2 starts to shrink, that will be a signal to escape the peak. Don’t cling to the battle; take profits early.