BTC has fallen below the psychological barrier of 70,000. Should we panic?
Just now, I was compiling statistics:
On October 29, STH sold 232,000 coins, LTH sold 15,000 coins.
On October 30, STH sold 251,000 coins, LTH sold 18,000 coins.
On October 31, STH sold 207,000 coins, LTH sold 11,000 coins.
It can be seen that:
1. From October 28 to October 30, the main selling pressure came from 'short-term profit' chips, while on the 31st, the main selling pressure came from short-term 'trapped chips.'
2. The 29th and 30th were a process of accelerated selling, including both LTH and STH. By the 31st, the selling pressure began to weaken.
3. In the coming days, continue to observe whether the data continues to decelerate or accelerates selling, as it can serve as one of the short-term judgment criteria.
4. Currently, the average cost for STH is around 64,000. As long as this level is not broken, we believe the trend remains unchanged.
The recent negative events, the financial reports of tech stocks are indeed not good, and they even dragged down the Nasdaq and S&P 500, and Coinbase's financial report was very poor, dropping over 15%.
Although the core PCE data is not good, this month's data will not affect the Federal Reserve's monetary policy in November.
The main point is that today's Polymarket data shows Trump's win probability has decreased by 1.4%, but he still leads Harris by 27.8%. If Trump loses, then a small black swan event is coming.
On Wednesday, I also reminded everyone of the risks. If BTC reaches new highs soon, it will face a weekly top divergence, which could be disastrous. Today's market has already reflected this, and today is the end of the month. From the candlestick analysis, BTC is in a downtrend on the hourly level, also down on the 4-hour level, just entering a downtrend on the 12-hour level, and the daily level has not yet officially confirmed a downtrend (if it can recover the 70,700 level today, it will temporarily avoid entering a downtrend). The intraday resistance level is 71,700, and the support level is 68,300 USD.
Tonight's non-farm payroll data is highly anticipated. Everything has two sides; good economic data is beneficial for Harris, but if Harris wins, it may be bearish for the market...
There are too many uncertainties in the market. When the market is hard to understand, it's better to talk about strategies:
Do not easily enter altcoins. When to buy altcoins or some altcoins should be bought only after Bitcoin breaks new highs is also worth considering. Don't rush, don't FOMO, or you will be the one trapped.
The main focus is still on studying on-chain data, observing MEME, and also observing secondary altcoins. Remember I mentioned that while playing with MEME, you need to be wary of VC coins' counterattacks; currently, it seems that VC coins may only gain momentum after Bitcoin completely exits the chaotic zone.
Why maintain the above strategy? External environment: the US election is approaching, uncertainty in the financial market is increasing, and it's visibly apparent that capital is choosing to seek safe havens.
BTC is a stock in the US market and is likely to follow the trends of the US market; altcoins are like BTC's children, likely to follow BTC's trends; while MEME, being a newborn calf, may have independent market movements and narratives.
In the past few days, everyone must pay extra attention, because every move the Americans make may turn into a super event that determines the direction of the global market. On November 1, which is tonight at 8:30, the US will release non-farm payroll data; on the 6th, the results of the US election will be announced; on the 8th, the Federal Reserve will hold a rate decision meeting.
Last night, CZ mentioned his views on the bull market for the first time after being released from prison:
Austin: Regarding the prospects of cryptocurrency in 2025, do you still have a positive outlook for the coming year?
CZ: I will try not to give any financial advice, but history does not represent the future. I cannot predict the future, but I can analyze history. Historically, Bitcoin has gone through very clear four-year cycles. 2013 was a bull market, 2017 was a bull market, actually 2012 was a recovery year, which many people do not trace back that far. 2016 was a recovery year, and 2017 soared. 2020 was a recovery year, and 2021 was a bull market. This year, it has returned to previous high points.
So based on current analysis, 2024 is a recovery year. As for what will happen next year, I am not sure, but in the long term, I still have a very positive outlook for the entire industry. I believe there is still a lot to be built, and as more people use cryptocurrency, its utility value will also increase. In the long term, I remain very optimistic.
I am still very optimistic about the market, and I hope you are too.
