Market trends often experience significant fluctuations around the U.S. election day.
Written by: 1912212.eth, Foresight News
On October 30, Bitcoin failed to reach a new historical high, only $100 short of $73,777 after rising above $73,600. Regrettably, the funds subsequently weakened, and after several rounds of volatile consolidation, it ultimately fell. On the evening of October 31 at around 9 PM, BTC accelerated its decline, once dipping to around $68,800, and has now retreated to around $69,500.
ETH also experienced a significant decline after rising above $2,700, dipping to around $2,500, erasing the gains from the previous days. Altcoins also saw a broad decline.
In terms of contract data, $276 million was liquidated in the past 24 hours, with $247 million in long positions liquidated.
Why has Bitcoin failed to break through its historical high? How will the subsequent market trend develop?
Harris leads in support rates in swing states before the U.S. election, increasing uncertainty.
The U.S. presidential election will officially begin on November 5, and the market often experiences significant fluctuations in the days leading up to it.
Looking back. During the BTC market on the day of the 2020 U.S. presidential election, there was a decline in the first two days, a rise on the day the election results were announced, followed by another decline in the next two days, and then a continuous upward trend.
Additionally, according to a recent poll reported by Forbes, Harris leads Trump by a narrow margin of just 1%. In seven key swing states that may decide the final election outcome, Harris leads Trump with a support rate of 49% to 48%. A week ago, Trump had a support rate of 50% to 46%, leading Harris.
This change in numbers further increases the uncertainty of the election results. After opening lower, U.S. stocks have expanded their losses, with tech stocks, chip stocks, and AI concept stocks also experiencing collective declines.
However, according to Polymarket data, Trump's probability of winning is significantly ahead of Harris.
Some funds have chosen to exit the market cautiously, waiting for the U.S. election results to settle.
Future market trend
Bitcoin's investment returns in the fourth quarter after the halvings in 2012, 2016, and 2020 have all performed well, at 97.7%, 58.17%, and 168.02% respectively. The return in November 2016 was 5.42%, in November 2020 it was 42.95%, and this month's return is still worth looking forward to.
It is noteworthy that Bitcoin rose by 7.35% in September this year, marking its best historical performance; historically, whenever Bitcoin has risen in September, it has continued to rise until the end of the year.
Zhao Changpeng hinted that a bull market will arrive in 2025.
Zhao Changpeng stated in an interview at the Binance Blockchain Week in Dubai that he cannot predict the future but can analyze history. Historically, Bitcoin has gone through very clear four-year cycles. 2013 and 2017 were bull markets. However, 2012 was a 'recovery year', which many people do not trace back to. 2016 was also a 'recovery year', followed by a sharp rise in 2017. 2020 was similarly a 'recovery year', and 2021 was a bull market.
Therefore, based on the current analysis, 2024 should also be a 'recovery year'. What will happen next year is unclear, but from a long-term perspective, the outlook for the entire industry remains very positive.
Standard Chartered Bank analyst: Trump's victory will help Bitcoin reach $125,000 by the end of the year.
Geoff Kendrick, head of global digital asset research at Standard Chartered Bank, stated that Bitcoin prices may experience a pullback before the U.S. presidential election on November 5, and volatility is expected to increase in the coming days. As traders choose to close positions to lock in profits before the election, the likelihood of Bitcoin breaking above the historical high of $73,700 before the U.S. election is decreasing.
Geoff Kendrick added that if the Republican Party (Trump) achieves a significant victory in the U.S. Congress, Bitcoin prices will experience greater volatility, which could push Bitcoin to $125,000 by the end of the year and trigger a new wave of altcoin frenzy.
