Trump is confidently leading with 33.9% of bets on Polymarket.

The election is about to start, but I want to convey to you a thought. The real probability of Trump winning is not 67%, but around 48 - 49, because the difference in favor of a certain opponent on Polymarket is determined by betting volume, not social surveys, etc.

There are nearly 1,000,000,000 USD bet on Donald Trump winning, while the amount of bets on Kamala Harris is more than 618,000,000 USD. That is the reason for this difference.

It is difficult to predict who will win, so wait for the results to be announced.

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