Currently, Bitcoin (BTC) is fluctuating at a price of 72,000 - 73,000 USD, a price that many in the crypto community call the beginning of a new uptrend season. However, from a holistic perspective and through objective factors, there are still many reasons why I do not truly believe that a major uptrend will occur in the near future. Below are the factors that I believe need to be carefully considered:
1. Where is the Money Flowing?
For a strong uptrend to occur, money flow is one of the prerequisites. The crypto market does not generate money by itself; it is capital injected in, transferred from one investor to another. The question is: Who will inject money into BTC when the price is already at such high levels? In reality, when asking friends participating in the market, although most believe that BTC will still rise, none of them want to buy in at this moment due to the high perceived risk. If the general sentiment of the market is to hold capital and wait for opportunities, what will drive BTC's price higher?
2. The Relationship Between BTC and Altcoins
When BTC first reached 73,800 USD, the altcoin market saw peak prices in 2024. But currently, although BTC is nearing this price again, most altcoins are down 70 - 80% from their peaks. The trend among many investors now is to buy altcoins in hopes of price increases in the future. This raises the question of whether the uptrend can be sustainable if money is flowing into altcoins instead of BTC. In this case, can market makers sustain the cash flow to support BTC's price growth, or will they seize the opportunity to take profits from investors?
3. A Major Sell-off is Needed
The market often needs a strong shakeout to restart growth momentum. When BTC's price peaks, profit-taking pressure increases, but if the price drops significantly to a more attractive level, this will attract new investors with a bottom-fishing mentality. The possibility of BTC rising to 80,000 USD or even 100,000 USD is not out of the question, but for newcomers or investment institutions, buying at levels of 40,000 - 50,000 USD would be more reasonable and less risky. The stronger the compression, the higher the bounce. Therefore, if BTC does not have a significant correction, it will be hard to have enough buying power to push the price higher.
4. Policy and Regulatory Barriers
Crypto still has many conflicts with monetary policy and regulations of various countries. Many nations still view BTC and other digital assets as tools for money laundering, terrorism financing, and evading sanctions. This creates a significant barrier to widespread acceptance and institutional money flow into the market. If this issue isn't resolved, expecting a strong uptrend season will be a major challenge.
5. The Ultimate Purpose of Investors
Most current participants in the crypto market are not aiming to own blockchain technology or long-term digital assets. They primarily want to increase the amount of stablecoins like USDT, USDC, and then convert them into USD for real-life use. When all investors are making profits, the urge to take profits is unavoidable. And when the money flow is no longer revolving around BTC but is directed towards cashing out, can the market still sustain growth?
6. Complex Macroeconomic and Geopolitical Situations
The global economic situation is facing many difficulties with inflation, high-interest rates, and escalating geopolitical tensions. These factors greatly affect investor sentiment and the flow of money into risky assets like crypto. In times of economic instability, the general trend is for investors to avoid risky investments and seek safer assets like gold and USD. This further reduces the likelihood of a major uptrend occurring in the short term.
Conclusion
Although the prospect of BTC rising sharply to levels of 80,000 USD or even higher is possible, based on analytical factors, it may not be appropriate to expect a major and sustainable uptrend season at this time. Factors such as money flow, the relationship between BTC and altcoins, price correction demands, policy barriers, investor objectives, and macroeconomic conditions are significant obstacles. For the market to truly grow strongly and sustainably, more time and a real boost from both internal and external factors may be needed.