The results of the US election on November 4th are imminent, let's discuss the impact of two possible outcomes on the cryptocurrency market.
Outcome 1: Trump elected.
1. The new Republican platform will become more important: ending the US government's crackdown on cryptocurrencies, defending the rights to Bitcoin and cryptocurrency mining, self-custody, and trading freedom.
2. Trump will appoint a new SEC chair, with three candidates who are favorable to the crypto space: Dan Gallagher (Chief Legal Officer of Robinhood who fully embraces the crypto space), Chris Giancarlo (former CFTC chairman, nicknamed the father of crypto), Hester Peirce (currently one of the five SEC commissioners, nicknamed the crypto mom).
3. The DOGE department will be officially established, cutting the budget will likely offend some people, bringing Dogecoin's exposure to a new level.
4. Short-term benefits from Trump-themed coins may be exhausted.
Outcome 2: Harris elected.
1. The steps towards regulatory openness for the crypto space may not be as significant. Gary Gensler may transition to Secretary of the Treasury; among the new SEC chair candidates, only Chris Brummer is crypto-friendly, but as a law professor, he might behave similarly to Gary once in office.
2. Trump may face imprisonment, Musk may be targeted, and companies in the crypto space supporting Trump may also be targeted, especially those that have allied with him out of fear of SEC actions, such as Kraken and Gemini. The aforementioned related thematic coins may face a deep pitfall.
3. Harris's climate policy is unfavorable for high-energy-consuming POW mining.
4. Overall, this may represent a similar bottom-fishing opportunity as in '94. After all, the Democratic Party and Harris's major funder, BlackRock, still want to expand Bitcoin ETFs and tokenization.