According to multiple Bitcoin price indicators, Bitcoin is expected to reach new highs before 2025.
Optimism surrounding the upcoming U.S. elections, significant capital inflows into spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs), and several technical and on-chain indicators suggest that Bitcoin prices are heading towards new all-time highs.
Trump's victory could drive Bitcoin prices to $100,000
Some market commentators refer to Bitcoin's recent surge above $73,000 as the "Trump trade," as cryptocurrency enthusiasts are optimistic about Trump's potential election.
Former President and Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump continues to lead over Vice President Kamala Harris in betting markets.
Trump has been courting the cryptocurrency industry, positioning himself as a crypto-friendly candidate. He attended the Bitcoin conference held in Nashville in July and made statements promising that any Bitcoin held by the U.S. government would not be sold.
In contrast, Harris's position on cryptocurrency remains unclear, although some believe her stance may be more moderate than Joe Biden's.
According to Polymarket data at the time of publication, Trump's chances of winning the presidential election on November 5 are 67%, while Democratic candidate Kamala Harris stands at 33%. However, polls show both are evenly matched, making the election outcome difficult to predict.
News of Trump potentially winning has sparked optimism in the market. Bitcoin millionaire Erik Finman stated that Trump's election would turn the U.S. into an environment supportive of crypto, leading to a significant influx of investment into the crypto market.
"His policies will ignite the crypto market and drive massive growth across the board," Finman added.
"If Trump wins, I believe Bitcoin could reach $100,000 during his second term."
Tony Sycamore, a market analyst at IG Australia Pty, believes that Bitcoin's movement reflects market optimism about Trump and emphasizes the importance of staying above $70,000 to boost confidence in this rally, with the potential to break the March peak of $73,794.
Bitcoin prices rose nearly 15% in October, boosting market confidence in the "October surge" trend.
Spot Bitcoin ETF inflows rebound
Spot Bitcoin ETFs continue to see significant capital inflows, with Farside Investors reporting that since trading began on January 11, these investment products have attracted a total of $23.3 billion in funds.
Despite continued outflows from Grayscale's GBTC, inflows from other ETFs, including BlackRock's IBIT, have compensated for this gap, with IBIT recording the largest single-day trading volume in six months, with inflows reaching $642.9 million.
This week, Bitcoin ETF demand accelerated, with a total of $2.1 billion in inflows recorded over the past five days, with over $870 million attracted by the spot Bitcoin ETF on October 30 alone.
Crypto data provider Ecoinometrics stated in a post on October 29 that this was the "strongest ETF inflow since March."
Ecoinometrics analysts added:
"If you're looking for reasons why Bitcoin might go up, this is one of them."
The SOPR indicator for short-term Bitcoin holders has turned bullish.
According to CryptoQuant, Bitcoin's recent breakthrough above $70,000 caused over 94% of the supply to turn profitable, but this did not trigger strong profit-taking.
Market intelligence company short-term holder (STH) spent output profit ratio (SOPR) indicators show that although short-term holders became profitable again, the market is not "overheated."
SOPR is an indicator used to show whether short-term holders are in profit or loss compared to when they first held Bitcoin.
An SOPR value above 1 indicates that most coins in short-term investments are in profit, while below 1 indicates that most coins are in loss.
CryptoQuant states that the current value of the indicator is 1.017%, indicating that short-term holders are realizing some profits but have not yet reached an overheated state.
The company explained that during the 7-month sideways trend since March, an SOPR value of 1.03% is considered "overheated," meaning there is still room for Bitcoin to rise before reaching this level.
"If Bitcoin prices break recent highs and short-term holders' SOPR continues to rise, we may see a comprehensive upward trend."
Bitcoin open interest hits an all-time high, confirming an upward trend
CoinGlass data shows that Bitcoin futures open interest (OI) hit an all-time high on October 29, while Bitcoin prices broke above $73,000 for the first time since March.
Data shows that Bitcoin futures OI recorded the largest single-day increase since June 3, rising to over 20,000 BTC, worth approximately $2.5 billion at current prices, with total OI reaching nearly 600,000 BTC, valued at about $41 billion.
Open interest refers to the total number of derivative contracts that are not yet settled.
High open interest indicates significant interest from investors in Bitcoin. When open interest increases alongside Bitcoin prices, it suggests that new funds are entering the market amid rising demand, signaling that the trend is strengthening.
CryptoQuant contributor Julio Moreno noted in a post on October 29 that if demand continues to grow, Bitcoin could set a target of $84,000.
"Bitcoin is close to a new all-time high. From a valuation perspective, $84,000 would be the next target (the 'ceiling').
The technical outlook for Bitcoin shows that a breakout is underway.
Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView shows that after Wall Street opened on October 29, Bitcoin prices rose to within $200 of an all-time high, with a peak increase of 5.6% to $73,600, followed by a slight pullback to current levels.
Interestingly, Bitcoin's price movement has formed an arc bottom pattern on the daily chart (see below). During the surge on October 29, buyers pushed the price above the neckline of the dominant pattern at $71,700.
If the daily candlestick closes above this level, it will confirm Bitcoin's bullish breakout from an arc bottom pattern, entering a price exploration phase, with a technical target set at $91,362, a 27% increase from the current price.
The daily relative strength index is close to the overbought zone, currently at 67, reinforcing the bullish dominance in the market but still below the "overbought" threshold of 70.
Meanwhile, the exponential moving average (EMA) also formed a "golden cross" on the daily chart. This occurred in early January when the 50-day EMA (yellow line) crossed above the 200-day EMA (purple line), after which BTC/USD rose by 60%.
