Let's go Bitcoin!

This article summarizes Arthur Hayes' research

1/ The real estate bubble is a government tool

The US government uses GSE to support the real estate market, similar to how China uses state-owned banks to provide cheap loans to real estate companies

China is suppressing deposit interest rates to finance state real estate enterprises => inadvertently promoting the development of the real estate bubble

2/ The 'Three Red Lines' policy

Xi Jinping's policy restricts debt for real estate companies, causing the real estate sector in this country to collapse

China has a 'buying a house on credit' mechanism, where citizens must pay before the apartment is completed => companies are easily cut off from working capital

Officials in China are also reluctant to implement lending policies due to fears of being investigated for corruption

3/ Economic rescue and $BTC

China's current economic stimulus measures are not enough to boost the economy. China will need stronger QE to inject money into the banking system

Currently, China is preparing for QE, such as the PBOC announcing the start of government bond purchases and loosening regulations on banks

QE will lead to inflation. The Chinese people will turn to gold and Bitcoin to protect their assets

4/ Prediction about Bitcoin

It will skyrocket when China's QE begins to take effect. He compares this price increase cycle to 2015 when the yuan was heavily devalued

The P2P market in China is very active, facilitating the flow of money into Bitcoin

The Chinese government is predicted to not allow citizens to invest in Bitcoin ETFs in Hong Kong

TLDR: $BTC HIGHER