Today, the crypto market experienced a widespread rally, with Bitcoin breaking 70,000, reaching a high of 71,500, and Ethereum rising to 2,600.
Among altcoins, DOGE and SHIB have surged the most, rising over 10%. This is mainly due to Musk posting an image featuring elements of Dogecoin's Shiba Inu.
What has driven the rise of Bitcoin?
This rise is mainly attributed to expectations that Trump may win, as well as the stimulus from the U.S. earnings season.
Some smart money may have known something in advance and started to rush ahead.
This year, the crypto space has just begun to realize the connection between the U.S. election and the Bitcoin cycle.
Trump unexpectedly shows a friendly attitude toward cryptocurrency and Bitcoin.
He not only attended the Bitcoin conference to give a speech but also launched his own DeFi product, claiming to 'make Bitcoin a strategic reserve for America'.
All of this has led the market to be filled with anticipation regarding Trump's possible victory. So if Trump comes to power, it would be a long-term benefit for the crypto space.
Although on Polymarket, funding indicates Trump is significantly ahead, from public polls, Trump's and Harris's chances are basically a 50-50 split.
As long as the expectation of Trump's victory before the election is not broken, the trend of improving market sentiment and liquidity will continue. The market will determine the next direction based on the election results.
If Trump is elected, Bitcoin is likely to challenge the 90,000 to 100,000 range.
If Harris is elected, Bitcoin is likely to fluctuate around 80,000.
Next, let's take a look at some noteworthy news and data:
1. DWF Labs co-founder stated: The bull market cycle began in October.
DWF Labs co-founder Andrei Grachev posted on social platform X: 'By October, we have entered the first month of the bull market cycle.'
Although the market is still a bit unstable, the overall trend is positive.
He believes that the current market trends include: meme coins, yield assets, artificial intelligence (AI), and RWA (real-world assets).
Additionally, Arthur Hayes also mentioned that China's economic stimulus measures could lead to a significant rise in Bitcoin, similar to how Bitcoin's price increased fivefold in 2015.
This indicates that against the backdrop of the U.S. election and global monetary easing, market liquidity and investor confidence are gradually recovering.
Now we need to strategically position ourselves with quality assets, be patient, and wait for sector rotation to rise.
2. Deribit CEO stated: The Bitcoin call options expiring on November 8 are twice as many as the put options.
Deribit's CEO Luuk Strijers stated that many traders are already preparing for a Bitcoin rise after the U.S. election on November 5.
He pointed out that the number of Bitcoin call options expiring on November 8 is twice that of put options, making it the first option to expire after the election.
Strijers said: 'These options expiring on November 8 have a total open contract value exceeding 2 billion dollars, with the main strike prices being 70,000, 75,000, and 80,000 dollars.'
This means the market generally expects Bitcoin to challenge the 80,000 high after the election.
3. Vitalik stated: I haven't sold any ETH in the past month; the foundation's selling is for operations.
Vitalik stated on social media that he personally has not sold any ETH in the past month, but has actually increased his holdings.
As for the Ethereum Foundation selling ETH, that was to cover operational costs, and he hopes everyone can understand that.
He also mentioned that Ethereum no longer loses 5 million ETH per year due to proof of work.
Ethereum network fees are also very low, with transactions completing in 30 seconds instead of the previous 1 to 30 minutes (thanks to the implementation of EIP-1559).
Since 2016, Ethereum has never gone offline due to DoS attacks or consensus failures, as various security measures (including internal development and funding) have prevented many financial losses.
Although there has been a lot of FUD sentiment towards Ethereum recently, I believe Ethereum remains the safest public chain available today, bar none.
Moreover, with the support of spot ETFs, ETH likely won't cool down. As liquidity increases, the market's demand for ETH will also rise, and it is likely to increase again.
4. a16z crypto report shows: The number of active addresses and usage rates in cryptocurrency have reached historical highs.
a16z crypto recently released a research report highlighting that this year the number of active addresses and usage rates in cryptocurrency have reached an all-time high.
As of September, approximately 617 million people globally hold cryptocurrency, with 60 million monthly active users.
It is expected that by 2024, the number of monthly active addresses will exceed 220 million.
Among them, Base ranks first in the Ethereum EVM chain with 22 million addresses, while Solana dominates the non-EVM chain with over 100 million addresses.
This year, the number of mobile wallet users is also the highest ever, with U.S. users accounting for 12% of the global total.
Overall, as Bitcoin breaks above 71,000, those who chased higher at 70,000 have been relieved. It can be said that Bitcoin has not let anyone down.
Moreover, 71% of Bitcoin holders have held for over a year, indicating that there are more long-term holders in the market now. The market always rewards those who hold long-term, the 'diamond hands'.
Next, we can focus on the financial reports released by MSTR and COIN, as well as the results of the U.S. elections.
In terms of operational strategy, holding spot positions is waiting for an increase, and Bitcoin is likely to break 80,000 by year-end.
If Bitcoin breaks 73,000 dollars, another spot grid can be opened.
The two spot grid trades we previously opened have started to take profits, averaging a 7% gain over a month.
Currently, there is still a position that hasn't been closed for profit; if Bitcoin breaks 73,000, the expected yield could reach 10%.
