Bitcoin (BTCUSD) has just witnessed an important event by breaking the bearish Megaphone pattern that has lasted for 7 months. This pattern emerged to absorb the short-term correction in the strong uptrend since October 2023, when the market began to be driven by expectations surrounding Bitcoin ETF funds and their launch.
Bearish Megaphone within a 7-Year Bullish Channel
It is noteworthy that this bearish Megaphone pattern is situated within a bullish channel that has lasted for 7 years, encompassing both major growth cycles of BTC. This is not the first time the Bitcoin market has recorded a bearish Megaphone pattern. Similarly, during the 2018-2021 cycle, the market also witnessed a bearish Megaphone pattern that lasted up to 12 months before the price broke out.
The Important Role of the MA50 Weekly Frame (MA50 1W)
Bitcoin's strong breakout occurs when the price successfully surpasses the MA50 1W line (50-period weekly moving average), serving as solid support. Throughout the previous bullish cycle, the MA50 1W was not violated since the price peaked. Interestingly, at this moment, Bitcoin is also strongly supported by the MA50 1W since March 13, 2023. Since then, the price has tested this line multiple times, including the most recent test on August 5, 2024, and continues to hold firm.
Bullish Signals from MACD Bullish Cross
Not only is the MA50 1W line significant, but the MACD indicator also shows clear bullish signals. With the formation of a bullish cross on the weekly timeframe (1W) on October 23, 2023, this is the first positive signal from this indicator after 7 months of less optimistic price action. This crossover is an important sign indicating the possibility that Bitcoin may reverse and enter a new growth cycle.
Can Bitcoin Reach 200,000 Dollars?
When all key indicators align, such as strong support from the MA50 1W line and positive MACD signals, there is a basis for expecting Bitcoin to create a strong growth surge similar to the past. The second price surge in the previous cycle was stronger by 65% compared to the first surge. If this repeats, we could witness a growth of up to 615% in the next 12 months, equivalent to a price of 200,000 dollars.
In a less optimistic scenario, even if Bitcoin only repeats the slight growth from November 2022 to March 2024, the price could still reach 200,000 dollars. However, the bullish trend can be maintained as long as Bitcoin holds above the MA50 1W line, regardless of whether the peak price achieved is 100,000, 150,000, or 200,000 dollars.
Conclusion
The breakout of the 7-month bearish Megaphone pattern is a strong signal, coupled with support from the MA50 1W line and positive MACD signals. These factors suggest that Bitcoin may be on the verge of starting a new bullish cycle. The current question is not whether Bitcoin will reach 200,000 dollars, but when and under what conditions the next price increase will occur.