The probability of Trump (Donald Trump) winning, as predicted by the market Polymarket, has surpassed opponent Kamala Harris since 10/5 and continues to rise. By 10/24, the winning probability had reached 64.2%. Bitcoin has slowly risen from 61K on 10/5 but has faced difficulties breaking through the 70,000 integer barrier, causing the crypto community to gradually lose patience. What kind of Trump trade is currently prevalent in the market?
The US dollar strengthens, and US bond yields rise
Recently, US bond yields and the dollar have strengthened in tandem. Standard Chartered Bank stated that the dollar's rise this month is primarily due to increased market bets on Trump's chances of winning the US presidential election, which has driven the dollar's rise. It estimates that 60% of this increase is related to expectations of Trump's election.
Trump advocates for high tariffs on imported goods, which could reignite inflation and push up interest rates. Other policy proposals, such as tax cuts and deregulation, aim to stimulate economic growth and increase corporate profitability, which will also boost market demand for the dollar.
The dollar index rose by 1.76% during this period, while the yield on ten-year US Treasury bonds increased by 7.04%.
Gold frequently sets new historical highs
Gold has frequently set new historical highs this year due to geopolitical risks, the beginning of the US interest rate cut cycle, and the uncertainty surrounding the US elections. It has risen more than 30% this year, but it seems to be less directly related to the Trump trade.
Has Bitcoin strengthened by riding the Trump trade train?
Do Trump's more cryptocurrency-friendly policies allow Bitcoin to ride this wave of the Trump trade train?
Bitcoin has also been slowly rising from 61K on 10/5, but it has faced difficulties breaking through the 70,000 integer barrier. Although institutions consistently predict that Trump's election will be more favorable for cryptocurrency regulation, providing strong upward momentum for Bitcoin, the market currently seems to lack this optimistic atmosphere. Chain News has compiled various predictions for Bitcoin prices following Trump's election as follows:
Standard Chartered Bank: 200,000
Bernstein: 90,000
Bitwise: 250,000 (not considering the election)
This article discusses how Trump's chances of winning have greatly increased. What trends are prevalent in the market? Is Bitcoin also considered a Trump trade? Originally appeared in Chain News ABMedia.
