Bitcoin (BTC) has fluctuated between $65,000 and $69,500 over the past few sessions, and technical indicators suggest a turning point in the next 24 to 72 hours. This analysis combines technical analysis of the 4-hour chart with market depth to provide a comprehensive view of potential opportunities.
Technical Analysis (4 Hours)
Price and Candlestick Pattern: The candlesticks are showing long wicks at the top, indicating a possible bullish exhaustion. Buyers are losing strength near the key resistance between $69,500 - $70,000.
Exponential Moving Averages (EMA): The price is above all EMAs (7, 25, 99), indicating an uptrend is still in force, but there are signs of consolidation. The EMA(99) at $66.122 is a key support in case of declines.
Stoch RSI: At 96.7, an extreme overbought zone. This suggests that the price is overextended and we are likely to see a correction in the coming hours.
RSI: In neutral zone, but the value of 63.5 is approaching overbought (70+). If the RSI falls below 60, it could accelerate a fall towards 66,000 - 67,000 USD.
MACD: Shows a bearish divergence, suggesting that we could see a stronger pullback if the negative histogram continues to widen.
Volume: It has increased slightly, but not enough to confirm a bullish breakout. This indicates that large buyers are not pushing the price above the resistance in a significant way.
Probable Scenarios (24-72 Hours)
Scenario 1: Setback (60% probability)
Given the overbought and bearish divergence on the MACD, we are likely to see a correction towards $66,000 (EMA(99).
Scenario 2: Bullish Breakout (40% probability)
If the support at $67,500 holds and volume increases, we could see a break towards $70,000 and even $72,000.
Market Depth Analysis (Order Book)
Strong Resistance: At the levels of $68,500 - $69,300. There are significant sell orders, especially at $69,000 with a volume of 1037 BTC and at $68,900 with 353.9 BTC. This creates a solid resistance, making an upward movement difficult without a strong push.
Strong Support: In the range of $66,000 – $67,500. Buy orders are accumulated in the $66,000 – $67,000 range with volumes exceeding 4,500 BTC. The $67,000 level has considerable support at 383.7 BTC, suggesting that if the price turns down, it is likely to find buyers in that area.
Order Volume Imbalance: There is an imbalance in orders: sell orders are higher at the top (resistance), indicating that breaking above $69,000 will be difficult without strong demand.
Large Trades and Immediate Momentum: Recent large orders around $67,986 suggest significant activity in this area, which could act as short-term support.
Conclusion
Bitcoin is in a critical zone. Indicators suggest an imminent correction due to overbought conditions, but if the $67,500 support holds, the price could attempt to break $70,000. Volume and upcoming moves will be key to confirm the future direction. Market depth shows strong resistance at the $68,500 – $69,300 levels, while there is solid support in the $66,000 – $67,000 zone. If the price pulls back, this area will be key to watch for buyer action.
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