Today, let's talk about a hot topic: Will Bitcoin really break through $100,000 by the end of the year? Especially considering the possibility of Trump being re-elected, will this be the key to driving the price of Bitcoin up? We will delve into this and ultimately provide my analysis.
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Now, let’s get to the main topic. Before we begin, I want to remind everyone: this world is not always as you see it. Alright, let's start:
If you have followed my other channel (Bitcoin Daily), you would have noticed that my views have been bearish for some time. I have also posted these views on X, and you can check them out. Many friends do not understand why, with such a good market, I have been bearish.
This depends on the logic of the bullish camp in the market. If their logic does not hold and is merely based on passionate shouts, then I do not agree with their views. After searching for a long time, I finally found that the bullish perspectives come from the U.S. election prediction market! Their logic is that the probability of Trump winning on Polymarket has risen, and Trump supports Bitcoin, so Bitcoin is going to rise, meaning Bitcoin will reach $100,000 by the end of the year!
At first glance, everyone must feel that this logic holds, but upon closer inspection, the logic of this perspective is simply nonsensical.
Next, let me share my analysis process:
First, can the prediction market represent the true public opinion of the election? Second, does Trump really support Bitcoin? Third, even if Trump supports Bitcoin, does his election mean that a Bitcoin bull market is coming? And how does it lead to $100,000 by the end of the year?
If you have not thought through these three questions, but instead see someone shouting that Trump is secure and the bull market is coming, approaching $100,000, then you will likely be stuck at $69,000.
Let’s analyze them one by one, starting with the first question: Can the prediction market truly represent public opinion?
This depends on the Polymarket platform. I tried to place bets a long time ago, but users from the U.S. are restricted from using it. If you insist on using it, you can only rely on a VPN, which excludes most Americans. Therefore, most users on this platform are not Americans, but rather users from around the world who enjoy gambling.
In recent days, the number of people betting on Trump's victory has reached 64%, which is what people refer to as Trump's winning probability of 64%. Many Trump supporters excitedly shout that Trump is secure! Looking at the data alone, it seems good, and if the bettors were also able to vote, I would say Trump is secure too. However, the reality is that most of those who bet on Trump's win do not have the right to vote because they are non-American citizens.
So this situation cannot represent that Trump is secure. Moreover, the sudden increase in Trump's betting data is itself suspicious. According to the Wall Street Journal, several large bets on Trump’s victory came from the same entity, with four bets totaling $30 million. We cannot speculate who this entity is, but there are three possible reasons for their actions:
Genuine Trump supporters, placing heavy bets on Trump, wanting to profit through this method.
Using this method to attract more people to place bets; if most people bet correctly, wouldn't the platform suffer huge losses? If this method disrupts the market and creates a false impression, wouldn't the platform make a lot of money?
Creating a buzz around the increased probability of Trump winning, encouraging more people to vote for Trump.
Regardless of which of the above three possibilities is true, none of them have any relation to Trump's assured victory. The true nature of this world is not as it appears before your eyes; it is much dirtier than you see! Yet people prefer to see what they are shown, so they always show you what you want to see, making it hard for everyone to see the real face of the world, let alone make money in the real world.
Let’s analyze the second question: Does Trump really support Bitcoin? I previously made several videos discussing this during the Bitcoin conference, and my conclusion is that Trump does not support Bitcoin, the reason being that he is completely ignorant of Bitcoin's underlying mechanisms. This conclusion was covered in those videos; it’s fine if you haven’t seen them, let me briefly explain my basis for judgment:
Trump had a significant opportunity to rally Bitcoin investors at the Bitcoin conference; all he needed to do was paint a bright picture on-site, showing all Bitcoin investors the bright future of Bitcoin. What everyone wanted to hear was that Bitcoin would become a national strategic reserve asset of the United States; just that one sentence would have been enough. Instead, Trump mistakenly referred to the strategic reserve as a strategic inventory, which are two completely different concepts. As a result, while Bitcoin was breaking through $70,000 during his speech, it fell back under $50,000 as he spoke. The subsequent speeches turned into Trump's promotional event, having nothing to do with Bitcoin.
Therefore, after listening, I am very certain that Trump does not genuinely support Bitcoin; the reason for attending the Bitcoin conference was solely to attract sponsorship funds. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. also attended the Bitcoin conference; he is the one who truly understands Bitcoin!
The third question is, assuming Trump really supports Bitcoin, will Bitcoin enter a bull market after he is elected? Does this logic hold?
Currently, Bitcoin's market is entirely dominated by the futures market, and the trading volume in the spot market is sluggish. This reflects the ratio of futures to spot trading; currently, the futures trading volume exceeds spot trading by about 9 times. The main way for substantial funds to profit right now is through futures; the spot market is not regarded as a mainstream profit tool. Therefore, from this perspective, the conditions for a bull market do not exist, and there is no logic to suggest that whoever is elected will trigger a bull market.
Moreover, in terms of the macro environment, the overall financial liquidity of the world is insufficient. Although we are in a rate-cutting cycle, quantitative tightening is still ongoing. Only when the rate-cutting cycle ends and QT becomes QE will a real bull market arrive, which is currently projected for the second quarter of 2025. So friends who haven't entered the market can consider picking up cheap chips after the major decline following the election!
Another reason is that there has been a significant net inflow of funds into Bitcoin spot ETFs recently, but the price performance has been disappointing. Last week, ten ETFs saw a net inflow of $1 billion in funds; if this $1 billion had all been used to buy Bitcoin in the spot market, the price of Bitcoin should have reached $80,000. However, the reality is that it stalled at $69,000. Why? One speculation is that the $1 billion did not actually buy spot assets. As for where the funds went, we do not know. Bitcoin spot ETFs are still a new thing, and there should be regulatory loopholes. Therefore, we have reason to believe that current institutions do not want to push the price higher and are waiting for what? Waiting for the completion of the interest rate cuts and the start of QE.
With these two points discussed, we see no reason for a bull market to emerge. Can Trump’s election change that? It cannot. The U.S. political system is well-established, and the power of a president is limited; at most, he can promote the development of certain things but cannot change the direction of some issues. Therefore, even if Trump is elected, he cannot bring about a bull market.
Conversely, if he is not elected, it does not mean there will be a catastrophic drop! The current public opinion environment in the Chinese-speaking community takes Trump too seriously; he is just a president. Bitcoin does not need a president; presidents need Bitcoin.
Logical thinking is lacking, and it is easy to be led by others. I hope everyone can think independently and also hope everyone can make a lot of money!
In summary, my viewpoint is very clear: there is no data to prove that Trump's election will lead to a surge in Bitcoin, and there is no logic to prove that his election will result in a Bitcoin boom. A price of $100,000 by the end of the year may be a beautiful dream; when you wake up from the dream, I hope you bravely buy at the bottom!
