Before February 2025, as long as the market does not experience a black swan event, prices will not drop significantly. As long as Trump takes office safely, there shouldn't be any major issues. However, if Trump faces an attack during his term that jeopardizes his safety, the cryptocurrency market will be in chaos. So far this year, there have already been three incidents that could endanger Trump's safety. Although they are called incidents, they may also be intentional. Key time frame: November 5, 2024 – January 31, 2025.

Probability 50%: 50%

But at this position, I believe more strongly that Bitcoin will quickly break through 69,000 rather than retreat to 42,000 or even 30,000.

But this is under the scenario of a black swan.

An unpredictable outcome.

However, I tend to be more optimistic about the market.

If one attempt fails, there will be ten; if ten fail, there will be a hundred; if a hundred fail, there will be ten thousand.

There will always be a time and space where Trump is safe.