Original | Odaily Planet Daily (@OdailyChina)
Author | Nan Zhi (@Assassin_Malvo)
Recently, the meme trading platform Moonshot has gained fame, being praised in multiple posts on platform X as the 'small Binance on-chain,' claiming it has solved the 'last mile' problem for meme tokens and has a strong listing effect. (Note: The author reviewed 9 articles introducing Moonshot and found that 6 of them included recommended links, indicating a significant promotional bias.)
So does Moonshot actually have a significant listing effect? If it does, is it effective in the short term or does it last long? Odaily will conduct a data review in this article.
Basic situation explanation
Statistical subjects: This article has compiled data on 13 tokens that were listed on Moonshot in the past ten days, excluding tokens that crossed chains to Moonshot, such as NPC, STONKS, etc.
Statistical time: Using the listing time provided by the 'Moonshot Listings' account as a baseline, the prices of tokens were recorded at 5 minutes, 1 hour, 4 hours, 24 hours, and the current time (October 22, 11:00 AM Beijing time) after listing.
Special situation: Due to the inability to obtain the exact second of the listing announcement, the starting price is taken as the opening price of the 1-minute candlestick, while other prices, such as that after 5 minutes of listing, are taken as the closing price of the 1-minute candlestick.
Review of the listing effect
The statistical results for various time periods are as follows:
It is clear that there is a significant 'listing effect' in the first 5 minutes after the announcement, with an average increase of 14.7% in the first 5 minutes post-announcement, and the longer the time stretches, the more pronounced the differentiation becomes.
In addition, if we exclude GOAT, the average price increase from 5 minutes to 24 hours is actually continuously increasing, but the cumulative increase of tokens since their listing has dropped sharply.
The short-term listing effect is significant
The five-minute increase of each token listed on Moonshot is shown in the chart below, arranged from left to right according to the listing order. It can be seen that, except for XD, all had positive increases after the announcement.
Based on the author's review of candlestick data, there is a possibility of 'announcement bots' automatically buying according to Moonshot announcements, especially for a few low-market-cap tokens, where the 1-minute increase is more pronounced compared to the 5-minute increase.
The 1-hour increase chart is shown below, where most tokens maintain positive increases one hour after the announcement, but differentiation begins to appear, with several tokens' increases starting to approach the zero axis.
No listing effect in the medium term
The chart below shows the 4-hour increase, where half of the tokens have erased their gains and continue to decline, while Magnet, GOAT, and GNON, which are the leading tokens in their respective phases, continue to rise, which does not necessarily mean that Moonshot is the fundamental reason for the increase.
The 24-hour increase chart is shown below, with slop and Shoggoth included since they were listed for less than 4 hours. It can be seen that the differentiation in token increases is becoming more pronounced, and it can be basically concluded that whether Moonshot lists a token or not has no direct relation to the token's mid-term increase.
In the long run, it will eventually return to zero
The chart below shows the cumulative increase of each token since the listing announcement, with GOAT omitted due to its excessive increase. It is evident that most tokens are trending towards zero, primarily because the tokens listed on Moonshot are all meme tokens, which find it difficult to attract long-term attention and establish core consensus amidst the proliferation of similar tokens, leading to an inevitable decline to zero.
In summary, Moonshot listings can often only serve as a short-term reference indicator; whether tokens can continue to rise in the short to medium term is unrelated to this.
Additionally, reviewing the data reveals that listings on Moonshot typically occur during the evening and early morning Beijing time, primarily focusing on popular tokens with a market cap around ten million. Readers focused on trading during this period can pay particular attention to short-term opportunities.
