Original Title: The Blueprint of Tomorrow 2025
Original author: arndxt
Original Source: x
Compiled by: Mars Finance, Daisy
1. Introduction
As we stand on the brink of 2025, the landscape of cryptocurrency is slowly taking shape as a blueprint for the future of finance, governance, and technology. Today, 617 million users are connected to decentralized systems, with $845 billion flowing through on-chain economies, we are witnessing the birth of a new global infrastructure. Transformation is inevitable; blockchain processes transactions 50 times faster than before, stablecoins underpin 32% of crypto activity, and DeFi reshapes cross-border capital flows. This article outlines future designs, and as crypto technology advances, it will become a framework. Here, I introduce you to 14 predictions for the development of the crypto field by 2025, co-authored with Mckinsey Crypto. đ„ł
Key Highlights
Activate passive crypto users by simplifying access and reducing barriers.
Bridge the gap between on-chain activity and ownership.
Crypto platforms should prioritize user-friendly mobile solutions and stablecoin products in high-inflation areas.
Political candidates should develop clear crypto policies to attract an increasing number of voters prioritizing digital asset regulation.
Leverage the growing adoption of stablecoins by ensuring a strong regulatory framework.
The government should accelerate the implementation of clear cryptocurrency regulations to promote institutional adoption.
Ethereum projects should leverage reduced fees to target cost-sensitive markets, especially in developing regions.
Developers should utilize enhanced scalability to innovate new use cases, particularly in high-demand areas.
Use ZK technology to build privacy-centric, scalable decentralized applications, focusing on industries like finance and healthcare.
Focus on integrating stablecoins into traditional systems to accelerate global cryptocurrency adoption, particularly in high-inflation and developing markets.
Utilize blockchain to enhance AI applications, creating new market opportunities in areas such as DeFi, supply chain management, and digital identity.
Fully leverage the shift to DEX by improving user experience, liquidity, and cross-chain transactions.
Prioritize developer-friendly tools and infrastructure to attract and retain builders.
Prepare for the fifth wave of cryptocurrency adoption in 2025.
2. The current scale and adoption of cryptocurrency
In 2024, the growth and adoption of cryptocurrency are significant, with key indicators showing increases in cryptocurrency ownership, active participation, and global trends. Notably, the industry has seen substantial growth in developing countries, and improvements in infrastructure lay the groundwork for future mass adoption. This section delves into the current scale of the crypto ecosystem, focusing on global ownership, active users, and mobile wallet adoption rates.
2.1 Activate passive crypto users by simplifying access and reducing barriers. In recent years, cryptocurrency ownership has surged, with millions of users holding crypto assets across various platforms.
Estimated Global Cryptocurrency Holders: As of 2024, it is estimated that there are around 617 million global cryptocurrency holders. This number represents approximately 12% of the total global internet users (around 5 billion people).
While the crypto industry has reached a considerable portion of internet users, it is still in the early application stage. Most internet users have yet to encounter cryptocurrency, providing opportunities for further development.
Data also indicates that many cryptocurrency holders are passive owners, meaning they hold digital assets but do not actively engage with blockchain applications (e.g., DeFi protocols or decentralized exchanges).
Passive Ownership vs. Active Use: Many individuals holding cryptocurrency have not fully embraced the blockchain ecosystem beyond buying and holding assets. This marks a potential market that developers and startups have yet to tap into, aiming to convert cryptocurrency holders into active participants by building applications that appeal to a broader audience.
Opportunities for Startups: Crypto projects have a significant opportunity to focus on bringing these passive users into the active ecosystem by simplifying access to decentralized applications (dApps) and reducing barriers such as high fees, complex user interfaces, and technical knowledge requirements.
2.2 The gap between on-chain activity and ownership: Monthly active cryptocurrency addresses
The number of monthly active addresses across various blockchain networks has reached an all-time high of approximately 220 million. However, it is important to note that one user may control multiple addresses, meaning this figure does not directly correlate with the number of unique users. Monthly unique active users
After adjusting for users holding multiple addresses, it is estimated that 30 to 60 million unique active users interact with blockchain networks monthly. While the number of active addresses is impressive, the difference between the number of addresses and unique users highlights that the crypto ecosystem is still relatively small compared to the total number of internet users. This gap indicates that the industry has not yet achieved mainstream adoption. On-chain activity vs. ownership: Despite a large number of individuals holding cryptocurrencies, on-chain activity is significantly lower. This may be attributed to high transaction fees on certain networks, lack of user-friendly interfaces, and limited practical applications of cryptocurrencies beyond speculation.
2.3 Crypto platforms should prioritize user-friendly mobile solutions and stablecoin products in high-inflation areas. Mobile wallets have become an important entry point for cryptocurrency users, particularly in developing countries where traditional financial infrastructure is less accessible.
Regions Leading in Mobile Wallet Adoption:
Nigeria, India, and Argentina have emerged as key regions for mobile wallet usage, leading in adoption rates and activity.
U.S. Mobile Wallet Share: The share of mobile wallet usage in the U.S. has dropped below 15%, reflecting a shift in adoption patterns towards developing markets.
The growing reliance on mobile wallets in regions such as Africa, Asia, and Latin America reflects the practical use of cryptocurrency in these economies. In many of these areas, cryptocurrency is used to hedge against inflation, facilitate cross-border transfers, and access financial services that would otherwise be unavailable.
Stablecoins in High-Inflation Economies: The surge in mobile wallet usage in countries like Argentina highlights the role of stablecoins as a hedge against local currency devaluation. With annual inflation rates as high as 80%, stablecoins pegged to the dollar provide users in these regions with a more stable store of value.
3. Political Landscape and Regulatory Environment
As cryptocurrency continues to evolve, its impact on the political landscape is becoming increasingly evident, especially in the United States. This section explores how cryptocurrency has become a significant political issue, the role of stablecoins in maintaining the dollar's dominance, and the latest regulatory developments shaping the industry.
3.1 Political candidates should develop clear crypto policies to attract an increasing number of voters prioritizing digital asset regulation.
In the lead-up to the 2024 U.S. presidential election, cryptocurrency has become a hot topic, especially in key swing states. The influence of swing states
Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan have seen the most significant growth in cryptocurrency-related search interest from 2020 to 2024, making them critical battlegrounds where crypto policy may influence voter turnout and decisions.
Google Trends Data: A deep dive into search trends shows a sharp rise in interest in cryptocurrency in these states, indicating that some voters view cryptocurrency as an important issue.
Politically significant states are increasingly interested in cryptocurrency, indicating that it may influence the outcome of the 2024 elections. With the rise of candidates supporting cryptocurrency and discussions around the role of digital currency in the U.S. economy, cryptocurrency could become a decisive issue in the elections.
Politicians' Positions: Both Democrats and Republicans have begun to incorporate cryptocurrency into their platforms and discuss the economic benefits of embracing digital assets, as well as the need for regulatory transparency and innovation. The bipartisan interest in cryptocurrency underscores its significance as a mainstream issue that transcends traditional political divides.
3.2 Leverage the growing trend of stablecoin adoption by ensuring a strong regulatory framework. The status of the dollar as the world's reserve currency is strategically significant for the U.S., but its dominance is being challenged by other currencies and emerging digital assets.
Stablecoins as Tools for USD Dominance:
Dollar-pegged stablecoins: Over 99% of stablecoins are pegged to the dollar, making them important tools for maintaining USD's dominance in the global economy.
Strengthening the dollar: With the rise of foreign central bank digital currencies (CBDCs), stablecoins have become the digital standard for cross-border transactions, providing the U.S. with a means to maintain its influence.
Key Metrics: Stablecoins Holding U.S. Debt
Stablecoins are currently the 20th largest holder of U.S. government debt, surpassing major economies such as Germany. As adoption rates rise, stablecoins may continue to play a key role in supporting U.S. government debt and could potentially become one of the largest holders in the future. This shift highlights the growing influence of stablecoins within both the crypto and traditional financial ecosystems. As a digital extension of the dollar, stablecoins are widely used, providing the U.S. with a unique opportunity to strengthen its economic influence globally, even as other countries attempt to use Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs). By adopting stablecoins, the U.S. can reinforce the dollar's position in global trade and finance while offering a more flexible digital alternative to traditional banking systems.
Future Challenges: While stablecoins have significant advantages, regulatory uncertainty and concerns about their systemic impact on traditional finance remain obstacles that need to be addressed. Ensuring that stablecoins are well-regulated and backed by appropriate reserves is crucial for maintaining confidence in their use as digital dollars.
3.3 The government should accelerate the implementation of clear cryptocurrency regulations to promote institutional adoption.
In 2024, the regulatory environment for cryptocurrencies shows both progress and challenges, as governments worldwide grapple with how to regulate this rapidly evolving industry. The U.S. has made substantial advances in establishing a clearer regulatory framework for cryptocurrencies, but challenges remain.
Bipartisan Support for Crypto Legislation:
FIT-21 Bill: A significant development is the passing of the FIT-21 bill by the U.S. House of Representatives, which has broad bipartisan support. This bill outlines a regulatory framework for cryptocurrencies, aiming to clarify issues related to taxation, consumer protection, and the regulation of decentralized finance (DeFi) platforms.
Stablecoin Legislation: There is growing bipartisan interest in crafting stablecoin legislation, with some lawmakers recognizing the importance of ensuring that stablecoins are regulated and operate within a safe and sound financial system.
The passing of the FIT-21 bill and increasing attention to stablecoin regulation marks a positive step forward for the U.S. cryptocurrency industry. Regulatory clarity is crucial for fostering innovation and ensuring consumer protection. However, the speed of implementation of new laws and the eventual regulatory landscape remains uncertain.
Global Regulatory Trends:
Europe and Asia: Several countries in Europe and Asia are also moving towards more comprehensive cryptocurrency regulatory frameworks. The EU's Markets in Crypto-Assets (MiCA) regulation is a prime example, showing that regions are seeking to regulate the industry and create a stable regulatory environment that encourages growth.
CBDC and Cryptocurrency Regulation: As more countries experiment with or launch Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs), the interaction between national currencies and decentralized stablecoins will become a key regulatory focus. Governments need to find a balance between promoting innovation and maintaining control over their monetary systems.
As businesses and financial institutions seek safety in operating within a clear regulatory environment, clearer regulations may increase institutional adoption of cryptocurrency. At the same time, regulatory clarity will help attract more users by providing safeguards against fraud and abuse.
4. Infrastructure Development
4.1 Ethereum projects should leverage reduced fees to target cost-sensitive markets, particularly in developing regions. The Ethereum network underwent significant upgrades in 2024, with one of the most impactful changes being EIP-4844 (Proto-Danksharding). This upgrade significantly reduced transaction fees for Layer 2 (L2) solutions and improved the overall scalability of the Ethereum ecosystem.
EIP-4844 Implementation:
Proto-Danksharding: This upgrade introduces a new data availability layer to Ethereum, specifically designed to support the demand for rollups (Layer 2 scaling solutions). By allowing rollups to store data more efficiently, EIP-4844 significantly reduces the costs of using Ethereum for developers and end users.
Impact on Layer 2 Solutions:
Lower ETH Transaction Costs
The costs of using Layer 2 networks such as Arbitrum or Optimism have significantly decreased. For example, transferring stablecoins using Layer 2 solutions now costs less than one cent, whereas fees on the Ethereum mainnet in 2021 were $12. This is a game-changer for users in developing countries, where high fees previously made many Ethereum-based services inaccessible. The success of EIP-4844 is a key milestone for Ethereum as it continues to tackle the challenges of high costs and network congestion. By making transactions on Layer 2 networks more affordable, Ethereum can better compete with newer Layer 1 blockchains that offer faster and cheaper transactions. This infrastructure upgrade also opens doors for new decentralized applications (dApps) that require low transaction costs to operate effectively.
4.2 Developers should leverage enhanced scalability to innovate new use cases, especially in high-demand areas.
Blockchain scalability has been a focal point in the industry, as networks need to handle an increasing number of transactions without sacrificing speed or security. In 2024, significant progress was made in the comprehensive scaling of blockchain networks.
Transaction Throughput Growth:
50x Growth: Blockchain networks can now handle 50 times more transactions per second (TPS) than four years ago. This improvement is attributed to advancements in Ethereum Layer 2 scaling solutions and optimizations of alternative Layer 1 blockchains like Solana, Tron, and Avalanche.
Contributors to Scalability:
Layer 2 Scaling: Ethereum's Layer 2 solutions (e.g., rollups) play a crucial role in improving network throughput without overloading the main chain. As more users transition to Layer 2 networks, Ethereum's capacity to handle dApp activity has grown exponentially.
Solana and Other Layer 1s: Platforms like Solana focus on improving the speed and efficiency of the foundational layer's transactions. Solana's Proof of History (PoH) mechanism allows the network to process thousands of transactions per second, making it a popular choice for high-frequency trading and gaming applications.
Advancements in these scaling aspects enable blockchain to support a broader range of applications, from DeFi to gaming, without encountering the bottlenecks that plagued the industry during previous bull markets. As blockchains become more efficient and affordable, we are likely to see more experimentation with decentralized applications that were previously unattainable due to high costs and slow transaction speeds. 4.3 Use ZK technology to build privacy-focused, scalable decentralized applications, emphasizing finance and healthcare sectors. Zero-knowledge proofs (ZKP) represent a breakthrough in crypto technology, providing solutions to some of blockchain's most pressing challenges: scalability, privacy, and interoperability. What are zero-knowledge proofs?
Zero-knowledge proofs allow one party to prove the validity of a statement to another party without revealing any additional information. In the context of blockchain, ZKPs can be used to verify transactions without exposing sensitive data.
Applications of ZKP:
Privacy: ZKPs support private transactions on public blockchains, protecting user confidentiality without compromising network transparency.
Scalability: By allowing certain computations to be processed off-chain and verified on-chain, ZKPs can significantly reduce the amount of data that needs to be stored on the blockchain, thereby enhancing efficiency.
Interoperability: ZKPs can facilitate cross-chain interactions by verifying data between different blockchains without exposing underlying information.
Technological Advancements:
ZK Virtual Machine (ZKVM): The development of ZKVM is an important milestone in making zero-knowledge technology more accessible. ZKVM allows developers to build decentralized applications that leverage ZKP to enhance privacy and scalability.
Performance Metrics: ZKVM is still in its early development stages, with performance comparable to early traditional computing. However, improvements are happening rapidly, and ZK technology is expected to play a significant role in the next wave of blockchain innovation.
ZKP is a key focus area for the future of blockchain technology. They can address privacy concerns while enhancing scalability, making them a crucial innovation for the next generation of decentralized applications. As ZK technology matures, we can expect broader applications across various industries, from finance to healthcare.
5. Emerging Applications and Trends
5.1 Focus on integrating stablecoins with traditional systems to accelerate global cryptocurrency adoption, particularly in high-inflation and developing markets. Decentralized finance (DeFi) and stablecoins will continue to dominate the cryptocurrency space in 2024. These two areas represent the majority of on-chain activity and have become key drivers of the entire cryptocurrency ecosystem.
Usage Breakdown:
DeFi: Accounts for 34% of on-chain activity, making it the most prominent use case of blockchain technology.
Stablecoins: Stablecoins represent 32% of activity, primarily due to their role as a medium of value transfer, especially in high-inflation economies and cross-border remittances.
Infrastructure Services (bridges, oracles, smart contract wallets): These account for 14% of blockchain activity, highlighting the increasing importance of infrastructure solutions for connecting different blockchain ecosystems and ensuring seamless functionality of dApps.
Token Transfers: General token transfers account for 13% of usage, indicating the ongoing flow of value within blockchain networks.
Other Categories:
Centralized Exchanges (CEX): Only 3% of blockchain activity is related to centralized exchanges, indicating a shift towards decentralized alternatives.
Gaming and NFTs: These emerging industries collectively account for less than 3% of total activity but hold significant growth potential in the coming years.
Social Applications: Social dApps are still in their infancy, accounting for less than 1% of blockchain activity.
DeFi and stablecoins have proven to be the most powerful and widely applicable use cases of blockchain technology. The success of DeFi lies in its ability to provide financial services without intermediaries, allowing users to borrow and trade easily. On the other hand, stablecoins provide a reliable medium for transactions and hedge against volatile local currencies in high-inflation markets. As infrastructure improves and more users join decentralized platforms, both areas are expected to continue driving cryptocurrency adoption in 2025.
Growth Potential:
DeFi: As the DeFi ecosystem matures, more complex financial products (e.g., derivatives, insurance, and cross-chain lending) are expected to emerge, attracting institutional investors.
Stablecoins: The demand for stablecoins continues to grow, especially among developing countries and institutional participants, which could drive further adoption. The integration of stablecoins with traditional financial systems, coupled with clearer regulations, may stimulate their further proliferation.
5.2 Utilize blockchain to enhance AI applications, creating new market opportunities in areas such as DeFi, supply chain management, and digital identity. The intersection of artificial intelligence (AI) and blockchain has emerged as one of the most exciting frontier areas in 2024, with substantial overlap between user bases and emerging applications.
User Overlap:
High Relevance: Data shows a strong overlap between users of AI technologies such as ChatGPT and active participants in the cryptocurrency space. This overlap indicates that cryptocurrency users are among the early adopters of AI and are likely to drive innovation at the intersection of both technologies.
Applications and Synergies:
Authenticity and Verification: One of the most promising use cases for blockchain in AI is verifying the authenticity of AI-generated content. As deepfakes and AI-generated media become more prevalent, the demand for trusted systems to verify content sources and accuracy will increase. Blockchain's cryptographic properties can serve as a verification layer to ensure the legitimacy of AI outputs.
Data Ownership and Control: Blockchain can also address concerns over data ownership in AI applications. Decentralized systems allow individuals to control their personal data, which can then be used to train AI models without compromising privacy or sovereignty.
Decentralized AI Agents: Blockchain can facilitate the creation of decentralized AI agents that operate independently of any central authority. These agents can be used in various applications, from automated trading to decentralized customer service, without the risk of censorship or tampering.
Many startups and established companies are beginning to explore how blockchain can enhance the functionality and security of AI applications. The convergence of these two frontier technologies could open up new markets and use cases that were previously unattainable, particularly in decentralized finance, supply chain management, and digital identity verification.
5.3 Leverage the shift to DEX by improving user experience and liquidity through cross-chain transactions. One of the most significant changes in 2024 is the increasing market share of decentralized exchanges (DEX) compared to centralized exchanges (CEX). This trend reflects the broader movement of the crypto ecosystem towards decentralization.
Market Share Trends
DEX: In 2020, decentralized exchanges accounted for 0% of cryptocurrency trading volume. By 2024, DEX is expected to account for over 10% of total cryptocurrency trading volume, with some estimates suggesting this figure could rise to 30-40% in the coming years.
Centralized Exchanges: While centralized exchanges continue to dominate the market, their share is gradually declining as more users seek decentralized alternatives for greater security, transparency, and control over their funds.
Advantages of DEX:
Security: DEX eliminates the need for users to entrust their funds to central entities, thereby reducing the risk of hacks or fraud that have plagued many centralized exchanges in recent years.
Transparency: All transactions on DEX are executed on-chain, meaning they are publicly visible and verifiable, thus reducing the risk of market manipulation or opaque behavior.
User Control: DEX allows users to hold their assets throughout the transaction process, reducing the risk of loss due to exchange bankruptcy or mismanagement.
Predictions: As DEX continues to improve user experience and liquidity, they are expected to capture a larger market share. The introduction of features like Automated Market Makers (AMM) and cross-chain trading has already made DEX more competitive, and further development of decentralized financial infrastructure may accelerate this trend.
6. Prioritize developer-friendly tools and infrastructure to attract and retain builders.
Developer interest in the crypto space is a key indicator of the industry's long-term growth potential. In 2024, the number of builders focused on crypto projects is expected to increase significantly as infrastructure improves and innovation potential rises.
Builder Energy Dashboard: A16Z's proprietary Builder Energy Dashboard tracks developer activity across blockchains, categories, and regions. This tool shows that the number of active builders in the crypto space is increasing year over year, reflecting the ecosystem's growing maturity and expansion.
Platform Preferences:
Ethereum and Layer 2: Ethereum and its Layer 2 solutions continue to attract the interest of most developers, focusing on scalability and improving user experience. The success of EIP-4844 and rollup solutions like Optimism and Arbitrum has drawn developers looking to build on these efficient, scalable platforms.
Base: Base is a breakthrough ecosystem in 2024, with rapidly growing developer interest due to its performance and innovation in Layer 2 scaling.
Other Ecosystems: While Ethereum and its Layer 2 dominate, platforms like Bitcoin, Solana, and new entrants continue to gain attention, especially for applications requiring high throughput and low transaction costs.
Growth of Builder Energy: Increasing developer interest indicates a healthy and evolving ecosystem. With more projects launching and tools being created for developers, the crypto space is becoming more accessible and innovative.
7. 2025 Trends
As the crypto industry continues to evolve, several key trends and predictions are emerging for 2025. These are expected to influence the next phase of growth and innovation in the field.
Infrastructure Utilization: With improvements in scalability in 2024, blockchain technology is primed for widespread application. As transaction fees decrease and network efficiency improves, more users and applications are expected to enter the field.
New Use Cases: Lower transaction fees will enable the development of more decentralized applications in sectors such as social media, gaming, and supply chain management. These sectors currently represent underwhelming on-chain activity, but significant growth could occur as infrastructure becomes more robust.
Regulatory Clarity: Regulatory developments in the United States and around the world will play a critical role in determining the speed of adoption. Clearer regulations will attract more institutional investors and bring greater legitimacy to the industry while protecting consumers and ensuring market stability.
AI and Blockchain Integration: The fusion of AI and blockchain is expected to accelerate in 2025, with more use cases emerging at the intersection of these two technologies. From AI-driven decentralized finance applications to blockchain-based AI model verification systems, the synergies between these technologies could bring new opportunities for innovation.
The Fifth Wave of Adoption: The cryptocurrency market is poised for the fifth wave of application adoption, driven by the maturation of decentralized applications, increased institutional participation, and greater global regulatory transparency. If the industry maintains its current momentum, 2025 could see the next significant growth and innovation cycle.
8. Conclusion
2024 will be a transformative year for the cryptocurrency industry, characterized by significant infrastructure improvements, regulatory advancements, and the maturation of key applications. As blockchain technology continues to expand and prices become more affordable, the industry is expected to find broader applications across various sectors, including finance and gaming. Despite ongoing challengesâespecially in regulatory transparency and user experienceâthe overall outlook for the industry is positive.
