Good morning everyone, I am Chicken Father.
1. Currently, we are starting a downward move from 69500 on a 1-hour level. I don't consider this decline to be an unhealthy signal; rather, it seems quite timely to me, as it has finally unfolded. The upward move from 58900, on a 4-hour level, had not completed its first upward leg on a 1-hour level until the day before yesterday, with only a few 15-minute structures along the way.
This gave me the illusion that the Chande theory might not be applicable. I initially thought there should be a 1-hour level pullback below the weekly major trend line, specifically below 68000, to reach around 64500. Later, I shorted 1000 points and felt it was wrong, so I quickly exited.
2. Now, first of all, the last upward move on a 15-minute level can be confirmed as moving from 66500 to 69500. Compared to the 6300-point increase from 62000 to 68300, it has formed a divergence on a 15-minute level. At the same time, this 15-minute upward move was largely retraced yesterday. So we have reason to believe that the market is currently running a downward move on a 1-hour level from the position of 69500.
For this downward move, if we see a weak pullback of 0.382 reaching around 65500, that would be very normal. I mentioned the other day that one could buy around 66000 based on the logic of a 1-hour level pullback moving down from around 69000.
3. If this downward move on a 1-hour level does not unfold, I will still be a bit conflicted in the short term. But since it has unfolded, the short-term thinking will be much clearer, including the next upward move on a 1-hour level, which can be expected to reach higher positions. Whether to short around 71000 now also raises a question mark.
4. Currently, the downward move on a 1-hour level has completed its first downward leg on a 15-minute level, moving from 69500 to 66850, with a decline of 2650 points. Subsequently, from 66850 to 68000, there was an increase of 1150 points, which can be considered as completing an upward move on a 15-minute level.
From a hindsight perspective, the current downward move on a 1-hour level still requires at least one more downward move on a 15-minute level within its internal structure. As long as this downward leg does not break 65300, it will form a divergence and conclude the current downward move on a 1-hour level.
You could even consider that this downward move on a 1-hour level has already completed this morning. You can also set 65299 as a stop-loss and aim upward to at least gamble to around 71000.
5. $SOL did not break last night's low this morning.