In early February 2024, Matrix on Target predicted that Bitcoin would reach $70,000 by the end of the year, when the price of Bitcoin was around $42,000. Although some people considered this forecast conservative, it was a significant increase of +65% from the price at the time. As of now, the price of Bitcoin fluctuates below $70,000, showing that there are still challenges to overcome to break through this psychological barrier, but the overall forecast is roughly accurate.
We believe that Bitcoin is expected to break through the $70,000 mark, and the development of the US political situation will affect market sentiment. If Trump is re-elected as president in 2025, his pro-business and skeptical policies of the Federal Reserve are expected to provide a good environment for Bitcoin. Although Trump has criticized cryptocurrencies, his policy direction will be beneficial to the market development of Bitcoin. Trump's previous term promoted economic growth through deregulation and tax policies, and these policy trends are beneficial to the Bitcoin and crypto asset markets.
Therefore, our forecast of $70,000 by the end of the year is accurate, but perhaps too conservative. Last week, we noticed that investors had not yet begun to position for a Trump victory. Since then, Bitcoin has seen a sharp 8% increase. As the probability of a Trump victory rises rapidly, it is increasingly likely that we will see a stronger return of Bitcoin.
