Bitcoin's $68,500 may become the highest point in October, with obvious signs of a pullback
Bitcoin has recently risen to $68,500, but market data shows that this may be a local high this month and there is a risk of a pullback. Here are the key reasons:
Increased selling pressure in the spot market
Despite the record high price of Bitcoin, the spot CVD (cumulative volume increment) is falling, indicating that retail investors are selling at high prices.
Bitcoin has hit the resistance zone and is now entering a critical "decision-making stage". If there is insufficient demand, the price may pull back to the support area of $63,000-64,000.
The futures market is over-leveraged
According to data from CryptoQuant, the leverage ratio of Bitcoin and other crypto derivatives markets has hit a new high.
This high leverage increases the volatility risk of the market. Analysts believe that if the leverage ratio rises further to 55%, it may trigger a wave of liquidations.
Technical indicators show bearish divergence
On the 12-hour chart, every rally in Bitcoin price shows bearish divergence with RSI (Relative Strength Index) and MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence).
Historical data shows that this situation is often accompanied by a 25%-30% decline. This means that if Bitcoin pulls back, it may test the $52,000-50,000 range.
The current market is showing signs of fatigue, increased retail selling pressure, excessive leverage, and the divergence of technical indicators, all of which indicate that $68,500 is likely to be a short-term top. If there is no new demand push, Bitcoin may pull back to around $50,000-52,000. In the future, we need to pay attention to the performance of RSI and MACD to confirm whether the trend has reversed.
