Binance's perpetual contract CVD has been rising, but positions have fallen, indicating that futures buying comes from short positions closing, and the shorts are gradually surrendering;
At the same time, the aggregated spot CVD has fallen below the previous level of 60,000, indicating that spot longs are leaving the market;
Combined together, a large number of long-term shorts are gradually admitting defeat and leaving the market, while providing good exit liquidity for spot longs.
The above is just the information I saw from the data;
The following are two hidden scenarios I guessed:
Scenario 1: Because ETFs still maintain a high net inflow, the current market is actually driven by ETFs and futures shorts. In form, it is similar to the market after January 2024, with a scenario in which shorts are desperate and retail investors find that they can no longer go up after getting off the spot market;
Scenario 2: Or it may simply be that futures shorts continue to close their positions, causing price increases to trigger a continuous market sentiment reaction and attracting a large inflow of ETF funds. In fact, it is a scenario in which the main spot force uses futures to raise prices and facilitate shipments;
Of course, you will definitely say that it is meaningless to guess here, and you can just go long. I am indeed going long, but studying market dynamics more can keep you sensitive to prices. There is no harm in that, right?
