Author: Omkar Godbole, CoinDesk; Translated by: Wuzhu, Golden Finance

summary

  • BTC’s “triple breakout chart” suggests a bullish resolution to the seven-month corrective trend and is on track for a new all-time high.

  • The candlestick chart shows resistance around $70,000.

Traders focusing on Bitcoin’s (BTC) daily candlestick chart may be getting bored as the price remains locked in a long-term directionless channel despite Monday’s gains. However, a less-traded “three-line breakout chart” now suggests a bullish outlook favoring new all-time highs.

The leading cryptocurrency by market value rose more than 5% to $66,000, its biggest one-day gain since Aug. 23, according to CoinDesk Indices.

Nonetheless, the daily candlestick chart suggests a neutral outlook as BTC remains trapped within a seven-month-long corrective descending channel defined by a trendline connecting the highs reached in March and June, and the lows set in May and July.

However, the three-line breakout chart shows that the breakout of the long-term descending channel occurred on Monday and the broader uptrend from the October 2023 low near $30,000 has resumed. A bull victory could lead to new highs above $73,000.

A three-line breakout chart may look like a candlestick chart, but focuses on price movement and trend changes while ignoring time, helping traders filter out erratic price movements and noise while identifying current trends and potential trend reversals.

“A Japanese trader described the three-line breakout chart as a more subtle form of point and figure charting, where reversals are determined by the market rather than by arbitrary rules, which means we can tune it to the strength and dynamism of the market,” said Chartered Market Technician Steve Nissen in his book (Beyond Candlestick Charts).

The line breakout chart consists of vertical blocks called lines or bars (green and red). When the price is above the highest point of the last three red lines, a bullish reversal occurs, represented by a new lineup (green bar). When the price falls below the lowest point of the first three green lines, a new red line appears (bearish reversal).

Bullish continuation occurs when price moves above the previous green line, confirming the continuation of an established uptrend. This is exactly what happened on Monday, with the green bar cutting the trendline from the March and April highs, as shown below.

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BTC line breakout and candlestick chart. (TradingView)

While the breakout on the line chart suggests a rally to new highs is on the cards, traders should be aware of two things, the first being the candlestick chart, which shows that bulls have not been able to hold above $70,000 since March. The price could once again face strong resistance around this level.

The second thing to note is the bullish invalidation on the line breakout chart, represented by the new red bar, pulling the price back inside the channel. A failed breakout usually leads to further price declines, as observed in late September.

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