According to the latest data from Polymarket, Trump's chances of winning have risen to 54.9%, 10 percentage points ahead of Harris, which has excited many voters and investors who support Trump! This means that in the 2024 presidential election, Trump's hope of returning to the White House is becoming greater and greater.
Behind Trump's rising chances of winning the election is his unparalleled influence within the Republican Party. He not only won strong support within the party, but also consolidated his political position through active campaigning. In addition, the current economic situation, especially the persistent inflation problem and the dissatisfaction of some voters with the current government's policies, also contributed to Trump's rising approval rating. For the market, the possibility of Trump's return to the presidency means that the future policy direction may change. In particular, in terms of tax cuts, trade policies, and the energy industry, Trump's policy stance may be more conducive to business expansion and economic growth than the current government. Therefore, the market is optimistic about his prospects of winning the election, and the stock market and Bitcoin may benefit from it.
According to the latest CME "Fed Watch" data, the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in November is as high as 95.6%, which is almost a done deal! The probability of maintaining the current interest rate is only 4.4%, and the rate cut seems to have become a market consensus. Looking ahead to December, the probability of a 50 basis point rate cut has reached an astonishing 84.1%, which means that the Fed's loose policy will be further released before the end of the year, and the market is expected to usher in a strong rebound.
This series of expected rate cuts is undoubtedly a major positive for the market. With lower interest rates, corporate financing costs will be reduced, and consumption and investment activities are expected to be further boosted. The stock market is usually very sensitive to interest rate cuts, especially high-growth industries such as technology stocks, which may become the biggest winners of this round of market. At the same time, safe-haven assets such as gold and Bitcoin are also likely to continue to rise against the backdrop of loose monetary policy, as low interest rates tend to depress the US dollar and push up gold and Bitcoin prices.
In the past 7 days, the net supply of Ethereum increased by 5,934 ETH. Although it seems that the supply has increased, Ethereum has destroyed 12,437 ETH through the destruction mechanism, which is one of the important factors supporting its price. Currently, the supply growth rate of Ethereum is only 0.257% per year, which is very mild compared to other assets and is almost close to deflation!
The introduction of the destruction mechanism allows Ethereum to show unique advantages in the balance of supply and demand. Although the supply has increased, the destruction mechanism effectively limits excessive issuance, which is conducive to the steady rise of ETH prices in the long run. Each destruction is equivalent to subtracting a part of the supply from the market. Especially when trading is active, the more ETH is destroyed, the less supply will be in the future, and the stronger the price will be. At the same time, the continued development of the Ethereum ecosystem, especially its widespread application in DeFi, NFT and other fields, will continue to drive market demand for ETH. The destruction mechanism plus the growth in demand means that ETH will be more scarce in the future, which undoubtedly brings huge potential for long-term investors in Ethereum.
This week, the US Bitcoin spot ETF increased its holdings by 4,635 BTC, which not only exceeded the production of Bitcoin in the same period (3,150), but also released a very positive signal: the demand for Bitcoin from institutional investors has increased significantly! This is undoubtedly a big boon to the entire market, especially in the context of the current global economic fluctuations, the attractiveness of Bitcoin as a safe-haven asset is gradually increasing.
The increase in ETF holdings exceeds the output, which means that the situation of "Bitcoin supply exceeding demand" in the market has begun to emerge, which may drive the price of Bitcoin further up. The entry of institutional funds often has a tendency to hold for the long term and will not be affected by short-term fluctuations like retail investors. Therefore, the continued increase in holdings of such funds will undoubtedly provide stronger support for the Bitcoin market. From the perspective of market sentiment, more and more institutional funds are flowing into Bitcoin, which not only improves its market recognition, but also consolidates Bitcoin's position as a mainstream investment target. It is foreseeable that with the participation of more ETFs and the further increase in holdings, the price of Bitcoin is expected to continue to rise in the future.
BTC: A spinning hammer pattern was formed yesterday. This pattern often appears at the beginning of a trend reversal, indicating that bulls are ready to go.
Technical indicators, the daily MACD has successfully formed a "golden cross", which usually indicates that a new round of rising market is about to begin! At present, the RSI is also at 66.49, there is still room for growth, and it has not yet reached the overbought range, indicating that the bulls are expected to continue to exert their strength.
In summary, the current strong support level is 62000. As long as the price can hold above this support, it is expected to challenge the pressure level of 66000. As long as it breaks through 66498, the market will likely start a new round of rising prices! The market outlook is very optimistic. Pay close attention to the opportunity of breakthrough and seize the possible rising wave! Pressure reference: around 66000; around 67900;
ETH: Ethereum closed with a spindle yesterday, and its trend appears to be relatively strong. Although the long and short sides were deadlocked yesterday, the current daily line has stood firmly above multiple moving averages, and the momentum of short-term rebound is relatively obvious. Compared with Bitcoin, Ethereum's performance is stronger, and this trend may continue.
Technical indicators, MACD indicators show that the bullish force is accumulating, and as the DIF line turns upward, there may be a stronger upward trend in the future. In particular, the RSI has stood above 68, close to the overbought range, which means that there is still sufficient upward momentum in the short term.
In summary, the current time is a good time for bulls. As long as the support is stable, future growth can be expected. Pressure reference: around 2868; around 3102;
Altcoins: The current capital performance of altcoins is stable, and the form of most tokens is fine. The tokens with strong performance in recent times are mainly concentrated in new public chain projects, especially those with good fundamentals. As long as Bitcoin can start a new round of rise, it is expected that most altcoins will also be linked, and players just need to wait patiently.
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