Bitcoin price remains in a state of indecision, confined within a tight consolidation range bounded by the 100-day and 200-day moving averages. An imminent breakout from this range will likely determine the assetâs short-term direction.
Technical Analysis
Daily Chart
Bitcoin has been stuck in a months-long consolidation between the $55,000-$71,000 price range since March 2024, with no clear trend or direction emerging.
This extended period of sideways movement shows a general balance between buyers and sellers, with accumulation occurring at the lower end of the range and distribution at the upper end. However, a bearish sign recently emerged when Bitcoin broke below the 200-day moving average at $63.4k.
However, the decline stopped short of the 100-day moving average at $61,000, where the price entered a low-volatility consolidation phase.
Bitcoin is stuck in a tight range, bounded by the 100-day and 200-day moving averages. This suggests an imminent breakout that could determine its short-term direction. A decisive move outside this range could signal the next major trend.
4 Hour Chart
On the 4-hour chart, an ascending wedge pattern has formed during the recent extended consolidation period. The price has been oscillating between the upper and lower boundaries of this wedge, which usually indicates a continuation of the initial downtrend if it breaks down.
Following increased selling pressure near the 0.786 Fibonacci OTE level, Bitcoin encountered a significant rejection, sending the price sharply lower towards the lower boundary of the wedge.
BTC is consolidating after finding support at this level, but sellers want to break below the lower trendline of the wedge, which coincides with the $60,000 support zone. If this breakdown occurs, the next important target for Bitcoin would be the $58,000 support zone.
On-Chain Analytics
An important on-chain metric for understanding Bitcoin market behavior is the realized price of UTXO age bands. This metric highlights the average price at which holders purchased their coins, broken down by the time they held them.
Historically, the 3-6 month (short-term) and 6-12 month (long-term) price action groups act as important support or resistance levels. When Bitcoin struggles to break above the average purchase price of these groups, this usually signals a bearish trend. Conversely, if the cryptocurrency is able to break above these price action groups, this indicates that bullish momentum is increasing, as new buyers are willing to hold even at higher levels.
Currently, the Bitcoin price is fluctuating between the actual prices of these two groups:
64K for short term holders (3-6 months)
$55,000 for long term holders (6-12 months)
Bitcoin recently surged to the 3-6 month holdersâ actual price of $64,000, suggesting a test of this important resistance level. A successful breakout above this level could signal bullish momentum and potentially a continuation of the uptrend. However, if Bitcoin fails to break above this zone, it could signal renewed selling pressure from short-term holders, leading to a bearish retracement to $55,000.
