Today, the A-share and US stock/cryptocurrency market can be said to be rising and falling, which reminds me of an ancient poem: The world's liquidity is about one stone, and the United States has eight buckets. By increasing non-agricultural employment and inflation expectations, the two violent straight balls successfully and quickly weakened the expectation of interest rate cuts and locked liquidity. According to the current rhythm, in order to keep capital from outflowing, the probability of a 25BP in November is high, and there may really be no reduction in December.
On the other hand, if the external situation is not good. A-shares will have to wait until tomorrow's fiscal meeting and the last trump card is played before we can see. It will probably have to go slow and long (active and passive superposition), and it is possible to grind for another half a year. The world situation is changing too fast. After all, the crisis has not been completely cleared, and several major players (Japan is more likely) must leave the table to settle this matter.
Although inflation in September has also fallen for six consecutive months, it is still slightly higher than expected. Moreover, this is the data before the oil price rise. Next month, as the oil price rebounds and is transmitted to the consumer end, the overall social operating cost will increase. If inflation continues for too long, it will evolve into permanent inflation. For example, because prices are too high, workers will demand a salary increase, such as the recent strike of U.S. port workers. Once wages increase, the inflation can be considered impossible to reduce.
In fact, compared with inflation, the United States should be more worried about falling into a stagflation crisis, that is, economic development stagnation and inflation, double happiness and double sourness. The current economic situation in the United States is indeed similar to that in the 1970s. There is an oversupply of money, rising wages and prices, and rising food, energy, and gold. If it cannot be effectively cleared through an economic crisis, it will be difficult for both the real economy and the stock market to usher in real prosperity. I now think that a quick-in-and-out deep V adjustment after the election may be the best script.
If Trump is elected in November, takes office in January next year, and then repeats the "312" in the spring to complete a round of economic shift and restart, just like his idol Reagan did to lead the US economy out of recession, he will inevitably gain huge prestige. But whether the pace of the real world is fast or slow is still unknown, so let's continue to follow and observe