2024-10-11 Additional Views

Today, many friends asked me about my bullish view of 710. The knowledge I have learned cannot see the market so far. Waves and entanglements can see the price a long time later. Wyckoff can only see the recent and the present, which is impossible. Here I can only add my views and hope that everyone can see the risks in the process.

There is nothing wrong with closing the positive line. The oscillation and downward correction will not fall continuously. As long as the daily closing price is higher than 589, it is a positive line. On Saturday, Sunday and Monday, the daily line, under normal circumstances, will have a slow market repair (negative rise), but given that the main bulls have pulled up many times on weekends before, no one knows whether the bears will take advantage of the low trading volume on weekends to sneak attack.

We can only take one step at a time. On the 4-hour, after the pin is inserted to the lower track, it starts to rebound, but the strength can only be said to be average. If the positive line cannot cover the starting and falling points, it is not the performance of strong bulls. The upward positions are 608-610-613. If 613 is contained and 597 is not broken, it is a preliminary signal of 4-hour bulls. If 613 cannot be contained, then at least 597 must be broken to stop the decline. Then the market will be connected to the shock market, and the support level above 597 will appear again, which is a signal to restore the 4-hour bulls. If neither can be done, then it is not even a 4-hour bull pattern.

Why can't we say that he will definitely take a daily correction? It is because we have been swinging around the middle track line on this daily line. It is so close, and the main force is still so bad. It is not impossible to pull it up and liquidate a wave on the spot, so we can only wait and see the situation of his upward breakthrough and retracement before deciding.

It will be more obvious if we look at the weekly line. This is a "bullish flag". If 590 is confirmed as the bottom, then this "bull flag" is established. How much upward, first look at 677, 694-700 is the limit value that the weekly line can currently support. But if it goes up like this, the volume, price and time will all be out of sync. We can't say that there is no probability, but we can only say that it is not high.

We should also consider that the unexpected 50% interest rate cut and the continuous net inflow of ETFs for more than 10 days pushed us to 666. If we want to rush to 700, the market needs greater positive expectations, but there is no major positive expected in the near future.