According to ChainCatcher, Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan said that the results of the US election, the economic situation, and the absence of major surprises in the crypto industry are the three conditions needed for Bitcoin to rebound to over $80,000 in the fourth quarter. However, to "rise across the board" to $100,000 in just a few months, a broader cryptocurrency rebound is needed to boost market sentiment. By the end of 2023, Bitwise predicts that Bitcoin will double from $42,400 at the time to over $80,000 by the end of this year, with the approval of the US spot Bitcoin ETF and the fourth Bitcoin halving event as catalysts.
In a memo to clients on Wednesday, Hougan still sticks with this prediction, and the ideal election result is to avoid a complete victory for the Democrats. He believes that a Republican victory is good for the crypto industry, but the Democratic Party has different attitudes towards cryptocurrencies. The current prediction market shows that Trump has a 53% chance of winning. In terms of the economy, Hougan suggested that two interest rate cuts totaling 50 basis points will be needed before the end of the year, as well as additional fiscal stimulus from China. He emphasized that people's trust in Bitcoin stems from their distrust of the government's monetary management. In addition, the crypto industry needs to remain stable and avoid major hacks, lawsuits, or a sudden influx of large amounts of locked coins into the market.