Polymarket, a decentralized prediction market platform that allows cryptocurrency users to place bets on world events, has worked out favorably for just 12.7% of user wallets, according to new data.

Data sourced from the onchain analytics tool Layerhub shows that 149,383, or 87.3% of the 171,113 crypto wallets on Polymarket, did not make a profit. Wallets with confirmed realized profits amount to 21,730, or 12.7% of all participating crypto wallets.

Polymarket wallets by confirmed realized profits. Source: Layerhub 

Out of the wallets that reported profits, only 2,138 users made over $1,000, with the majority of the profits falling within the range of $0–$100. As shown in the above graph, roughly 7,400 Polymarket wallets made profits between the $100–$1000 range.

Polymarket bets get expensive for the majority of traders

Polymarkets has facilitated approximately 10.8 million betting trades. Between Oct. 6 and 8, It recorded more than 300,000 trades daily, owing to current world events like the ongoing conflict between nations and the upcoming United States presidential election.

It’s important to note that not all crypto wallets represent individual users. Traders may operate multiple wallets, placing high-risk, high-reward bets in an attempt to increase the chances of making a profit.

Nearly 25,000 wallets have participated in more than 50 trades, while almost 32,000 wallets conducted between 20 and 50 trades on Polymarkets.

Polymarket wallets by number of trades. Source: Layerhub 

In comparison, nearly 58,000 wallets have made between just one and five trades, indicating that the majority of participants engage in fewer trades and possibly face steeper odds.

Interest in crypto gambling unfazed

As of Oct. 9, open interest on Polymarket — the total number of futures contracts held by market participants at the end of the trading day — stands at $161.1 million at the time of writing. 

Check out Cointelegraph’s article for a direct comparison of the best Bitcoin (BTC) providers for sports betting.

On Oct. 6, Tesla CEO Elon Musk said that Polymarket could more accurately predict the 2024 United States presidential election results than traditional polling.

Source: Elon Musk

Musk posted the tweet when Donald Trump was leading Democratic Party candidate, Vice President Kamala Harris, by a margin of about three percentage points.

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