According to BlockBeats, on October 9, according to the data of the prediction market Polymarket, the probability of winning of the current candidates in the prediction of Satoshi Nakamoto's identity in the HBO documentary on Polymarket has fallen below 4%. Among them, Adam Back, the founder of Blockstream, has temporarily reported 3.2%, ranking the highest among the candidates. Previously, Adam Back, Len Sassaman's widow and others have denied the speculation of the relevant candidates' identity of Satoshi Nakamoto.

The probability that Satoshi Nakamoto is "other people, multiple people" rises to 95.5%.