Before the National Day, I wrote an article about my views on the big money release. I didn't expect it to be so popular, with more than 700,000 views and more than 200 replies. It seems that there are still many more people who are talking about stock speculation than cryptocurrency speculation. The A-share market will open again tomorrow, so I would like to supplement and correct my views:
1. Exchange rate
Maintaining the original view, RMB does not have the conditions for long-term appreciation. It can be seen that the US non-farm data on Friday was only slightly better, eliminating the possibility of a 50% interest rate cut in November, and the offshore RMB plummeted by 1,000 basis points.
2. Property market
With the introduction of the new policy, the real estate market has indeed become active during the National Day holiday. I recently listed two houses for my parents. One was sold within one day of listing, and the other one has seen a significant increase in visitors. However, it is still difficult for prices to rise. In the long term, they are still bearish, but they can stabilize slightly in the short term.
3. Big A
The previous prediction of 3500 points was indeed conservative. The enthusiasm of the leeks is beyond imagination. Recently, many people have opened accounts and raised money to prepare to rush in tomorrow's opening. But my core view remains unchanged. At present, only the leeks and hot money are rushing into the A-share market without thinking, but the national team, local governments, foreign capital, etc. all want to cash out. The next week may be the best opportunity to cash out.
(1) Although the old foxes on Wall Street say they are buying the bottom of A-shares, they are actually withdrawing their capital. The general trend of foreign capital withdrawal is irreversible. Foreign capital has invested in China for more than 30 years since the reform and opening up, and it is not something that can be withdrawn in one or two years. If A-shares fall all the way to 2,000 points, foreign capital will not be able to escape. Now is the time when the national team is pulling up the market and holding the exchange rate, which is a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to escape.
(2) Local governments were previously selling off their stocks to fill fiscal holes, and now that the A-share market has been pulled up, they can sell it at a good price and pay GWY salaries at the end of the year. Most new investors have not experienced the stock market crash in 2015, and the current environment is much worse than it was then. In 2015, the household leverage ratio was just over 30%, but now it has already exceeded 60%. If this wave really goes crazy and falls, the people's savings will all be lost.

There are probably two scenarios later:
A: The exchange rate must be fundamentally maintained, so large-scale money printing can only be a slogan to deceive the leeks who come in to take over for G, and it will soon collapse.
B: If we really release a large amount of money to boost the stock market and save the property market, domestic inflation will skyrocket and the exchange rate will collapse. The only way is to truly decouple and play stand-alone.

B is the last resort, so the probability is still A.
#加密市场反弹 #BNB2000