The report released by the U.S. Department of Labor on Friday showed that non-farm payrolls increased by 254,000 in September, far exceeding the market's expectation of about 150,000. The unemployment rate was 4.1%, down 0.1 percentage point from the previous month. As the number of employed people increased, wages also increased. The average hourly wage in September increased by 0.4% month-on-month, also higher than market expectations.

In addition, data from the Labor Department showed that the number of new non-farm jobs in July was revised up from 89,000 to 144,000, and in August it was revised up from 142,000 to 159,000.

The latest employment data has greatly eased market concerns that the U.S. labor market is cooling too fast, leading to an economic recession, which may prompt the Federal Reserve to take a cautious approach when adjusting interest rates. After the data was released, expectations of a 50 basis point rate cut in November were significantly reduced.

In the early hours of Saturday morning Beijing time, data from the Chicago Mercantile Exchange's Federal Reserve monitoring tool FedWatch showed that the market expected the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in November to be 95.1%, compared with 67.9% a day ago; the probability of another 25 basis point rate cut in December was expected to be 79.2%.

Some analysts believe that the unexpected surge in non-farm payrolls and the unexpected drop in unemployment have greatly increased the possibility of a "soft landing" for the US economy. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell and other Fed officials have repeatedly stated recently that they do not want to see the labor market cool further. The main task of the Fed is to curb inflation and prevent the labor market from deteriorating.

The Federal Reserve implemented its first interest rate cut in four and a half years at its September monetary policy meeting, lowering the benchmark federal funds rate range by 50 basis points to 4.75%-5.0%. The main motivation for the Fed's unconventional 50 basis point rate cut was to avoid a sharp cooling of the labor market, which to some extent included "compensation" for not cutting interest rates in July. Powell admitted at the press conference after the rate cut that if the Fed had seen the non-farm payroll report released in July in advance, it would most likely have cut interest rates in July.

Powell said earlier this week that the Fed will continue to cut interest rates to keep economic growth solid, but there is no reason to cut rates as sharply as last time. The Fed's next policy meeting is on November 6-7.

The October employment report will be released before then, and analysts expect that the number of employed people in October may be far lower than that in September. This month, dock workers at dozens of ports in the United States have held large-scale strikes, and Hurricane Helene may also make the labor market "worse."

James Knightley, chief international economist at ING, pointed out that the Fed has reason to be cautious, but the resilience of the U.S. economy often makes data exceed expectations. To maintain this momentum, the Fed needs to gradually relax policies to provide more breathing room for economic growth.

Data from the Labor Department showed that the increase in hiring in September was mainly driven by the leisure and hotel industry, the healthcare industry and the government sector. Among them, the leisure and hotel industry added 78,000 jobs, the healthcare industry and the government sector contributed 45,000 and 31,000 new jobs respectively. #美联储11月降息预期升温 #美国8月核心PCE创4月以来新高 #非农人数大幅升温 $BTC $ETH $BNB #BTC #ETH