The National Day is about to end. After the National Day, the next major holiday will be New Year's Day, and New Year's Day means the end of 2024.
The Chinese New Year this year is on January 28th, and there are less than 4 months left. Everyone should work hard and arrange high-quality currencies so that you can reap a lot when the market explodes. Although the market has adjusted back since October, don't worry too much. The decline at the beginning of the month does not mean anything. The market changes in an instant. Once the general direction is confirmed, you will feel at ease and know what to do now.
BTC mentioned in the small group
The local rebound of BTC hourly line has a certain stopping effect on the downward trend. The support level is 60993, and the lowest level is 60805, which just received and rebounded. From the perspective of 4H, the short structure formed after the price fell at the beginning of the month still needs some time to repair, which will have a certain impact on the sustainability of the rebound, and the market will fluctuate.
However, from the hourly chart, a local short- to medium-term bullish structure has been formed. If you go long at a low price during the next correction, the winning rate will be greatly increased. The price is expected to fluctuate upward, which is suitable for short-term rebound. Short-term support is 61786~61445 (watch the market and slow down to the right place for the best effect), the second support is 60862~60205, and the short-term suppression is 62855~63437
Then there are two perspectives to observe BTC counterparty:
1. Pay attention to the large funds that can drive price fluctuations, and observe whether they place bets, where they place bets, and how much they place bets. Because the amount of data is huge, this perspective usually requires a quantitative model, which is difficult to achieve manually.
2. Observe the judgment, opinions and emotions of novice traders on the market. This perspective is much simpler. You can get some understanding by looking at the comments section under popular posts. The more intense the words, the more representative they are.
The following three reasons determine the bullish trend:
1. It is in a period of interest rate cuts/before global quantitative easing.
2. Former Bitcoin holders have high costs and little profit.
3. The Canadian currency is supported by governments including the United States and Japan.
After the conflict between Israel and Iran is resolved, the market will still fluctuate upward. After reviewing the trend of non-agricultural data at the beginning of each month from April to October, April, June, and August were all downward corrections, and May, July, and September first stepped back and then reversed. Now it is October, whether it is the implementation of the interest rate cut or the approaching November election, there is not much time left for institutions to clean up the market, and the definite upward trend in October is irreversible.
There are many bearish people in the market. After the recent interest rate cut, 100 billion yuan of funds have flowed into the market. These funds are not from retail investors adding positions but from institutions entering the market. The general upward trend in November and December is unstoppable, and the air force should not make any unnecessary resistance.
ETH also made a precise callback to the pressure level given within the small group. Affected by the overall structure, the space for direct rise here is limited, and aggressive operations are not recommended. The current position is not cost-effective to chase the rise. Given that there has been a correction in the 4H, the local bottoming trend will be confirmed in the process of stepping back, and there will be opportunities for right-side trading. It is recommended to wait for the opportunity of 4H divergence or hourly support after the stepping back.
Short-term support is 2371~2357 (1H support, watch the market), medium-term support is 2305~2282 (4H divergence area, support pending orders), short-term suppression is 2458~2474.
Obviously, the mainstream narrative of this bull market is:
1. The inscription on BTC: ORDI SATS RATS PIZZA DOG,
2.ETH/SOL上meme--MEW TURBO SLERF MYRO BOME WIF PEPE NEIRO FLOKI BRETT POPCAT
3. AI Narrative--TAO RNDR
4. Public chain narrative - Sui Apt TON Saga Kas STX CKB CFX, etc.
5. L2 Narrative – MANTA METIS STRK AEVO
6. Staking - ETHFI PENDLE
If it is not a mainstream narrative, try to avoid participating in it as much as possible. Once the framework is established, you can slowly find the one that suits you.
Here’s another fun one for you:
The American HBO TV station has recently made a big move, planning to broadcast a documentary on October 8, which is three days later, to dismantle the century-old mystery of "Who is Satoshi Nakamoto". This topic has been hyped by the mass media, which is good for expanding the popularity and legendary color of BTC. However, for them to use the name of Satoshi Nakamoto to promote and hype that the mystery will be solved (in fact, it is believed that the film is just speculation), it is really against the pragmatic spirit of Satoshi Nakamoto and BTC.
Currently, the prediction market Polymarket has opened a market to let the market use real money to bet on who the film will point to as Satoshi Nakamoto. The person with the highest votes is Len Sassaman (45.5%). Many people may not have heard of this person. (If you want to know more, just contact me privately. I won’t go into details here.)
I think there is a nearly 100% probability that Len Sassaman is not Satoshi Nakamoto.
Postscript: I heard that some people have started to promote Len Sassaman-themed meme coins in conjunction with the HBO film’s promotion.
