Reposted from: https://x.com/keyahayek/status/1842615520463565075?s=46&t=K9eTxGMTmgSdERVtGuzuwA
This is the last time I will write about the logic of going long on Chinese assets. From now on, I will only post pure emotions. This article reviews in detail the logic of temporarily switching from Crypto to Chinese assets starting from 9/26.
I believe in probability, not black and white.
BTC is an asset that has a non-negligible probability of reaching a higher level in the next five or ten years. However, from the current position, whether from the LTH data, the stage of the US stock market, or the market value, the probability of doubling again in this round is not high, and the odds are not that good.
But this is not absolute. For example, if Trump really practices what he preaches after taking office (unlikely for a politician), the United States buys BTC as a reserve currency, a hot war breaks out in East Asia, etc., these may also be catalyzed to a higher level in this round.
If you just think that liquidity will improve during the rate cut cycle and that "the U.S. will print money," and therefore infer that BTC will be able to reach 150,000, 200,000, or 250,000 in this cycle, I think that is rather naive.
I don't have time to convince you in detail. At least I won't buy in. Most people who look left and right when crossing a one-way street won't buy in.
I have long-term faith in BTC and an unchanging long-term position. For my long-term view on BTC, please see: x.com/keyahayek/stat…
As for altcoins, I would like to directly quote @wilsonng2019's opinion: Ever since people from Stanford, Oxford, and Wall Street entered the market, they have not had much to do with ordinary people. The lack of new narratives will end at some point in the future, and the time of this end should be when VCs can no longer survive. Of course, there will be some opportunities in this process, but in terms of certainty, the current cryptocurrency circle is less than the stock market, so why keep funds in a place that requires PVP, insider information, CABAL, lacks liquidity, and is a place where you have to fight for a few points?
On the other hand, A-shares/Hong Kong stocks/Chinese stocks are assets with a high probability that the market index will double within 2-12 months. If they go bullish in the cycle, it must be the beginning of the bull market. The market ahead is very likely to be a policy bull market that occurs once every ten years. At the same time, the direction of the PBoC central bank policy on the stock market is unprecedented.
This policy is a national stock speculation competition with the central bank's policy as the grand prize pool. Even if you don't participate, the masses will definitely participate, and the stock deposits have doubled in the past 7 years (in addition, counterintuitively, in the past few years of crazy support, the increase in deposits-loans has been even faster). For details, please see:
x.com/keyahayek/stat…
In other words, this is no longer a time of divergence between bulls and bears. Instead, there is a unilateral slaughter of existing deposits by financial assets.
If you don't participate in the distribution in Niuchu, you will be the one allocated by others.
When gold falls in the sky, you need to use a big bucket to catch it.
At the same time, don’t underestimate the rate of return of the stock market. If the bull market that happens once every ten years comes true, any ordinary person who enters the market at the beginning of the bull market will have the opportunity to get a high return of 2-10 times, but whether the return is realized depends on fate. For details, please see:
x.com/keyahayek/stat…
This process will not be smooth sailing, but it is too early now. Some people think that the current rise is too crazy and are a little worried. I think there is no need to duck. Everyone should deeply understand the intentions of policy makers. Now that the stock market has just risen, they will not immediately pour cold water on it. Regarding the biggest risks in the later market, please see:
x.com/keyahayek/stat…
In a nutshell, the cryptocurrency world is in the middle and late stages of a bull market, and Chinese assets are in the early stages of a bull market. The opportunity cost of shifting from the cryptocurrency world (especially altcoins) to Chinese assets is not high, and the potential upside is extremely high.
This is the core reason why I publicly switched from Crypto to Chinese assets starting from 9/26.
If you have a small amount of funds, you can understand playing MEME and betting 100x or 1000x, but don’t forget that there are also myths of wealth creation in bull market stocks and options. In the 15-year bull market, there was also the legend of the “cryptocurrency intern” college student hot money, such as the little crocodile;
If you have a certain amount of funds, it is still recommended to recognize the situation. We are here to make money. The bull market is just a bubble. Altcoins are not more noble than stocks.
If you are already very satisfied with the amount of your funds, you need to seriously consider the opportunity cost of switching markets. In the event of a tail event, it is possible that BTC will take a huge step forward in this round.
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If you don't take out 90% of your money in the cryptocurrency circle and make large investments, and put all of it into A-shares, Hong Kong stocks, and Chinese stocks listed in the US, how can you have a future?
The country gives you a week to raise funds, the bull market gives you a week to adjust your thinking, opportunities give you a week to grasp, fate gives you a week to change, and wealth gives you a week to prepare. Embrace opportunities, step on the vent, respect trends, welcome an era, and embrace a rebirth. Are you ready?
