While investors have been eager to see the orange price hit new all-time highs, recent trends suggest that this milestone may be further away than expected. Optimism in the market has driven prices higher, but changes in macroeconomic trends and shifts in market participants' behavior have brought new challenges, causing the orange price trend to stagnate. There is uncertainty about when the orange price will break through $80,000. The market is struggling with falling demand and mixed signals from major investor groups, making the future path of the orange even more uncertain, and the price surge that many are expecting may be delayed. The orange has struggled to stay above $60,000 since early August, and investors are anxiously waiting for it to recover from its losses in July. Despite the emergence of an expanding rising wedge pattern, the breakout has been difficult, mainly due to the sharp decline in demand for the orange. Recent reports show that large orange holders (whales) have significantly reduced their holdings, with a significant decline in 30-day holdings, from 6% in February to 1% in recent weeks. Generally speaking, a 3% increase in holdings of addresses holding between 1,000 and 10,000 BTC is seen as a bullish indicator, signaling a possible price increase. However, this trend has not yet materialized, casting doubt on the near-term price increase. Despite the weak price action, the most committed investors of BTC, known as permanent holders, have remained unfazed. These long-term holders have been accumulating Bitcoin without selling and continue to increase their balances. In fact, despite the Bitcoin price falling since the end of May, the total holdings of these investors have been steadily increasing by about 391,000 Bitcoins per month. The continued accumulation of permanent holders will provide some support for the Bitcoin price, preventing it from falling sharply. However, it also means that there will be a large liquidity release before the rapid rise of BTC due to mixed market signals. As of now, BTC is trading at around $63,000. To break through $65,000, the bullish signals need to outweigh the bearish signals, which may take some time to form. Therefore, the possibility of a breakout and subsequent rally to $80,000 before the end of the third quarter seems increasingly unlikely. If Bitcoin manages to break through at least the $65,000 barrier, it could spark a rally above $72,000, paving the way for a move above the previous all-time high of $73,900.Achieving this goal would invalidate the current bearish-neutral outlook and reignite investor optimism for a significant price increase in Bitcoin by 2025, driven by institutional adoption, the impact of the 2024 halving event, and potential regulatory clarity. Optimistic forecasts suggest that Bitcoin prices could reach an average of $100,000 to $130,000 by 2025, or even higher to over $200,000. This optimism is largely based on historical patterns following previous halving events, where Bitcoin typically experiences a significant price increase approximately 18 months after the event. Relatively conservative forecasts suggest that Bitcoin prices could hover around $87,000 to $95,000 by 2025. These estimates take into account potential economic factors such as changes in interest rates, which could affect investor behavior towards riskier assets such as Bitcoin.