Cryptocurrency daily summary:

  • BTC ETF had a net outflow of about $54 million, and ETH ETF had a net outflow of nearly $3 million

According to Trader T monitoring, on October 3, the spot Bitcoin ETF had a net outflow of US$54.03 million, and the Ethereum ETF had a net outflow of US$3.2 million.

The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25BP in November is 62.5%

According to CME's "Fed Watch": The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points by November is 62.5%, and the probability of cutting interest rates by 50 basis points is 37.5%. The probability of a cumulative rate cut of 50 basis points by December is 44.5%, and the probability of a cumulative rate cut of 75 basis points is 44.7%; the probability of a cumulative rate cut of 100 basis points is 10.8%.

Grayscale launches Aave investment fund

Asset management company Grayscale Investments has announced the launch of a new investment fund for Aave’s governance token, AAVE. The fund is open only to accredited investors and adds to Grayscale’s suite of single-asset crypto investment products.

Vitalik Buterin said that he could try to increase the bandwidth requirements and lower the minimum limit to 16 or 24 ETH

Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin wrote that perhaps developers should realize that 32ETH is a higher threshold for stakers than the bandwidth requirement, and perhaps slightly increase the bandwidth requirement in exchange for lowering the minimum deposit limit to, for example, 16 or 24ETH. Once Ethereum is ready for peerdas upgrades, the minimum deposit limit can also be reduced to 1ETH.

Documentary Director Cullen Hoback Says HBO Documentary Will Reveal Bitcoin Founder Satoshi

Documentary director Cullen Hoback and HBO recently announced the premiere of their upcoming film “Money Electric: The Bitcoin Mystery,” in which he claims to have identified several authors of the QAnon conspiracy theory, and hinted that the true identity of Bitcoin creator Satoshi Nakamoto may finally be revealed.

Data: More than 3,700 accounts in South Korea hold more than $750,000 worth of cryptocurrency

According to reports, nearly 3,759 people in South Korea have cryptocurrency accounts worth more than 1 billion won (about $750,000). Of these, about 185 are investors aged between 20 and 29. These young cryptocurrency investors hold a total of about 967.2 billion won (739 million U.S. dollars), an average of about 5.2 billion won (3.9 million U.S. dollars) per person.

Market Analysis: BTC barely holds $60,000, the market turns from Sui to speculation Aptos

Market Hotspots:

- High-performance Layer1 public chain Sui Ecological Token ended its one-month strong upward trend last night and began to adjust downward last night. Funds turned to speculate on the Aptos sector, which is also part of the Move system. The market value of the sector increased by 6.69%, among which Aptos (APT), Cellana Finance (CELL), and Thala (THL) increased by 3.63%, 11.03%, and 18.74% in 24 hours respectively.

-The privacy sector rose slightly, with the sector leaders Monero (XMR), Aleo (ALEO), and Dash (DASH) increasing by 4.6%, 6.9%, and 1.0% in the past 24 hours, respectively.

-Benefiting from Grayscale's launch of a dedicated investment fund, Aave (AAVE) has once again turned red and risen, with a 24-hour increase of 1.1%. Aave is the leading protocol in the DeFi lending track. Since the new proposal in July this year considered activating fee conversion and buying back tokens from the open market, the token has been sought after and the popularity continues to this day.

Market Trends:

- BTC bottomed out and rose slightly yesterday after falling for 4 days in a row. The $60,000 integer mark and the 60-day moving average have provided significant support, and positive sentiment is gradually accumulating;

-ETH has fallen for 6 consecutive days. Eigenlayer's coin issuance and ETH spot ETF have not effectively promoted the improvement of ETH's price. ETH/BTC is approaching the previous low again, showing that the market's capital preference for BTC under the cold sentiment;

-Bitcoin fell below $60,000 last night, and altcoins followed suit. Aptos, Base, and Ton Chain sectors were the first to rebound.

Macroeconomics: The Fed is not in a hurry to cut interest rates sharply, focusing on tonight's employment report

Fed official Goolsbee said yesterday that the extent of the rate cut is not as important as a sharp reduction to the neutral rate in the next 12 months. Powell also held a similar view, emphasizing cautious rate cuts, but the upcoming employment report will test his patience.

Specifically in the capital market, tensions in the Middle East and policy swings have exacerbated investors' concerns. Yesterday, the three major U.S. stock indices fell slightly, and the VIX volatility index broke 20. Correspondingly, the U.S. dollar index rose for three consecutive days to a new high, and gold and oil prices rose.

The non-farm payrolls data will be released tonight, and the market generally expects an increase of 150,000 people from the previous month, with the unemployment rate stabilizing at around 4.2%.

Overall, market expectations are more aggressive than the Fed's, believing that this will prompt the Fed to further adopt loose policies.

Summarize

Amid the tensions in the Middle East and the uncertainty of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut policy, investors' concerns have not eased, and safe-haven assets such as gold have been sought after. The crypto market has experienced a certain degree of adjustment. BTC rose slightly yesterday after falling for four consecutive days, and market sentiment began to brew a positive trend.

Although Bitcoin has performed poorly recently, setting the worst October record in the past 10 years, according to history, most of the October gains occurred after the 19th. Overall, the crypto market is still facing short-term adjustments, but local hot sectors still have a certain wealth-creating effect.