1/ Recently, Bitcoin has been fluctuating between 50,000 and 60,000, and market sentiment is low. Trading volume hit a new low in a single day, the fee rate continued to be negative, and the Ethereum exchange rate fell below a new low again. The market has reached a freezing point. The altcoin rebounded after the FOMC broke the emotional freezing point, but it was still driven by a chip vacuum, and the market trading volume remained sluggish.
2/ Continuing the analysis from last month, altcoins are generally in a consolidation phase after the pullback from the March/April highs. However, the accumulation of time is crucial in the chip law, and we have not yet observed signs that altcoins are ready in batches. It is worth noting that many of the target chips failed to form an effective distribution and passively pulled back to the low point, which means that market makers still have the motivation to maintain prices or drive a rebound in the short window after the sentiment freeze. This may be a positive signal.
3/ From the current perspective, we believe that the international risk market has released risks for the first time since August. Although some altcoins have made good recovery trends this month, we believe that crypto assets still need time to accumulate strength. At present, the market will continue to be in a state of disorderly fluctuations. Looking ahead, we believe that the adjustment and accumulation this year will be a good foundation for the market next year, and there is no need to worry too much about the volatility of the market.
Most of the altcoins are similar. If Bitcoin falls by 10%, the altcoins will fall by 30%. Only a very small number of them can follow independent trends, such as SUI. Its recent performance is really eye-catching. The unlocking of large amounts of tokens has not been able to pull it down, and the trend is getting stronger and stronger. In the long run, it will break new highs soon. You can continue to pay attention to it.
Meme may be the one that fell the hardest, and it may also rebound the fastest. As I said before, every pullback of meme is an opportunity for us to get on board. As long as you dare, meme will definitely bring you surprises in this bull market. It is a must for everyone to have one or two. FLOKI, PEPE, BOME, and WIF are preferred, and the shit combination depends on the situation.
There is nothing much to say about BNB. When viewed as a stablecoin, everywhere is the cost point.
SOL is also following the trend of the market. It has been a long time since there has been any good news. Just buy the bottom on the left side at a low level.
For other sectors, AI, Inscriptions, and then Chain Games are the second choices. As I said before, look at the leaders. It is recommended to wait and see at present. The correction has not stabilized yet. For short-term trading, enter the first position. After 10% and 15%, reduce your position depending on the situation.
Recent events that require attention:
1. October 4, US non-farm data and unemployment rate.
2. On October 7, FTX voted on repayment of $16 billion.
3. October 10, US CPI data.
4. October 22, FTX repayment hearing.
Review and comments on the overall market situation and market trends
The market performance this month is flat, and the hype and duration are weaker than in early 2023. The market is once again widely discussing the blockchain native innovation represented by Ethereum and the problem of its penetration rate being blocked. From a certain perspective, the current sentiment is even more depressed than in 2019. As the sentiment has eased after the FOMC, some altcoins have made good recovery trends, but the market is still scattered and the trading volume is sluggish.
Looking back at the trend, Bitcoin has continued to fluctuate in a disorderly wide range since April. This is mainly due to the simultaneous shrinkage of trading volume, market attention and risk appetite. It is worth noting that we are witnessing a disorderly wide range of fluctuations close to a new high, which confirms our consistent view that we may be experiencing a unique asset class cycle.
From the perspective of altcoins, current market opportunities are mainly concentrated on chip games. This highlights the current lack of narratives and the weak endogenous driving force of the industry. Except for AI and Meme, there is no obvious capital synergy and main narrative trend. As we mentioned before, the market's pricing model and gameplay transformation have gradually been recognized by more practitioners.
However, the characteristics of the reflexive market remain the same. If this trend continues, pure game driven by narrative and chips may reappear in the future, which will once again highlight the "casino" nature of the market. From the perspective of secondary market operations, the grasp of the escape window and the choice of escape posture become increasingly important.
Overall, our focus will continue to be on waiting. The wide range of fluctuations will eventually end, and the risk-return ratio of profiting through "selling high and buying low" will drop significantly. It is a wiser choice to stay focused on the market and do a good job of identifying the turning point after the market trough.
If the market continues to fall and panic grows, is it possible to buy at the bottom?
I think it is possible. From the historical trend, the crash caused by such news is usually a rare opportunity to buy at the bottom. The expectation of the currency has not changed, the value has not changed, but due to external influences, the cost is lower. The ancients said that after a sharp drop, there must be a sharp rise. For example, Bitcoin plummeted to 48,000 US dollars in early August, and then rebounded to 65,000 US dollars. Take the good value spot time to outperform all negatives!
