Polymarket data shows a clear divergence in market forecasts for Bitcoin and Ethereum to reach new all-time highs in 2024. Bitcoin is generally bullish, while Ethereum faces lower market expectations. (Preliminary briefing: U.S. Elections) The CFTC is eyeing the election prediction platform Polymarket. Will it follow the example of Taiwan in catching gamblers and blocking Internet domains?) (Background supplement: dYdX, Wintermute enter the prediction market, the CFTC warns about the risks of on-chain gambling, and Polymarket faces supervision ?) According to the latest data from Polymarket, the market predicts today (30th) that there is a 60% chance that Bitcoin (BTC) will hit a record high in 2024, and the current betting amount is approximately US$140,000. This prediction strongly reflects investors’ confidence in Bitcoin’s price performance in the coming year, especially in the context of changing macroeconomic factors following the current U.S. interest rate cut. The conditions for Bitcoin to reach a new all-time high in 2024 are to break through $73,777 within this year according to Binance data. By comparison, data from Polymarket shows that Ethereum (ETH) has only a 16% chance of hitting a new all-time high in 2024, but $1.67 million is being staked. This result shows that although investor confidence in Ethereum’s sharp rise in the short term is relatively weak, there is still a lot of money betting on its potential performance. A condition for Ethereum to hit a new all-time high in 2024 is to break $4,868 within the year, according to Binance. The ETH/BTC ratio has a low chance of rebounding in the short term. Judging from the market data above, the probability of Bitcoin hitting a record high is significantly higher than that of Ethereum, implying that the ETH/BTC ratio will be difficult to rebound in the short term. This trend shows that investors are more optimistic about the performance of Bitcoin in the next few months, while Ethereum may face more challenges. By the end of the year, the short-term market sentiment may be "Bitcoin is strong, Ethereum is weak". . The ETH/BTC ratio has shown a significant downward trend since the beginning of 2024, sliding from a high of around 0.06 to currently around 0.04, showing the continued weakening of Ethereum’s value relative to Bitcoin, currently at 0.04062. Related reports: U.S. Elections》The CFTC is eyeing the election prediction platform Polymarket, will it follow the example of Taiwan in catching gamblers and blocking Internet domains? dYdX, Wintermute enter the prediction market, CFTC warns of on-chain gambling risks, Polymarket faces regulation? Let’s be honest: Is Polymarket a good forecasting tool? 〈Bitcoin vs. Ethereum, Polymarket predicts "Who will reach new heights in 2024?"〉 This article was first published in BlockTempo "Dongzone Dongzhi - the most influential blockchain news media".