$BTC
A-shares and US stocks are two extremes. A-shares have risen sharply. Will Bitcoin follow US stocks or A-shares in the future?
Let's analyze the above title:
A-shares are almost the only market that has not actively spawned a stock market bubble during the entire interest rate hike cycle in the United States, but has continued to fall.
On the other hand, Japan, South Korea, India, etc., have seen their stock markets break new highs against the backdrop of the US interest rate hike.
But this rising cycle in the peripheral markets is passive, and they have no choice but to compromise with the US interest rate hike.
With the US interest rate cut, the RMB exchange rate has risen sharply, and the tension in the domestic market has eased.
At the same time, the rapid rise in the exchange rate means that a large amount of funds are flowing back to China, and there is a trend for foreign capital to transfer to China.
This is definitely not a good thing for US stocks. But Bitcoin is currently slightly stronger than US stocks.
I also mentioned in my previous article that after the interest rate cut, I am not optimistic about US stocks relative to Bitcoin.
If a financial crisis caused by the United States occurs in the next few months, the crypto market is likely to usher in a real bull market after the black swan.
The current crypto market is very strange. Although the copycat rotation has increased, it is not very strong. It is also accompanied by the rhythm of callback suppression.
The slogan of "One day in the currency circle is a year in the world" is not so loud in the background of A-shares in the past two days.
Next, return to the market:
Last night's short order of 657 was eventually lost.
The daily line also closed relatively solid. In this case, I will no longer forcefully short.
Due to this round of market and liquidity reasons, I don't think it is a bull market. The final rising position is around 68,000-the top of the daily downward trend.
But there are too many voices in the market looking at 68,000 to prevent the situation from being in place.
I will make a last short order in the range of 66,700-67,200-the support and resistance conversion point at the end of July.
Regarding shorting at 65,700, it is necessary to see the need for callback to kill more. The current accumulated long order liquidation volume has reached more than 10 billion.
And this is bound to create many obstacles for further rises.
Before breaking through 68,000, if there is a deep correction and the mid-term market, I will intervene and go long around 61,700 - a strong resistance level before breaking through 65,000 in mid-August.