$BTC
🔥 The Fed's interest rate cut suspense has set off the market: the balance of interest rate cuts in November is slightly tilted, and a 75 basis point interest rate cut may be welcomed in December?
Fed interest rate cut expectations are divided: the suspense of interest rate cuts in November has escalated
The latest data from CME's "Fed Watch" shows that the market's expectations for the Fed's future monetary policy are subtly divided.
As of the November meeting, the market generally believes that the probability of the Fed's interest rate cut by 25 basis points is 50.1%, and the possibility of a large interest rate cut of 50 basis points is also close behind, reaching 49.9%, showing that the expectations of interest rate cuts are almost evenly divided.
Looking forward to December, expectations of interest rate cuts have further accumulated, with a cumulative probability of 50 basis points of interest rate cuts of 26%, while a more radical cumulative interest rate cut of 75 basis points is regarded as the most likely scenario, with a probability of 50%.
However, the possibility of a cumulative interest rate cut of 100 basis points cannot be ignored, reaching 24%.
This series of data reflects the market's complex expectations and high attention to the future policy direction of the Federal Reserve.