Polymarket’s Solana ETF Forecast Drops to Just 3% on High Regulatory Uncertainty: Experts Highlight Long-Term Potential
Exchange-traded fund (ETF) expectations for Solana have been significantly lower, currently at just 3%, according to estimates from Polymarket, but some experts remain optimistic about the long term.
There is general agreement that regulatory changes are critical, but there is disagreement over what form these changes should take.
Solana: A Long-Term Opportunity$SOL
Decentralized prediction platform Polymarket has downgraded the probability of Solana ETF once again, dropping it to 3%. Estimates on Solana ETF have never been above 15% before. This suggests that Solana’s outlook as an ETF is a long-term prospect, but there are still some advantages that make it more likely than other crypto assets.
After the SEC granted approvals for ETFs for Bitcoin and Ethereum, many experts are considering Solana as a viable third-place candidate. Brazil has already given its approval, and there is hope that the Solana ETF could be a valuable test case.
Nate Geraci, President of The ETF Store, said on social media that it is difficult to launch new spot crypto ETFs under the current administration. “The current situation does not suggest that a Solana or XRP ETF is possible in the next year or two,” Geraci said.
According to Geraci, the only hope for the Solana ETF could come from the US Presidential elections, although he did not endorse a definitive candidate.
Bitwise’s Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan takes a more optimistic view. He noted in a recent interview that Bitcoin ETFs have faced rejections for a decade, but the SEC’s eventual approval of Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs in 2024 could open the door. “The resolution of uncertainty is the most important factor. We think these things will converge. There will need to be regulatory changes,” Hougan added.
Hougan doesn’t seem inclined to tie ETF performance to the upcoming election. Instead, he suggested that regulatory uncertainties will resolve during the election period and new ETF initiatives will perform better in a clearer environment. Bitwise plans to conduct these efforts in a data-driven manner.
“Bitwise has always been data-forward in SEC filings. We’re very excited about the Solana ecosystem and think it’s robust. We’re continuing our work,” Hougan said.
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