The US dollar index rebounded to 101.02, gold rose and then fell to $2,557, and Bitcoin soared to break through $62,000!
In the monthly outlook on August 31, I pointed out that the market has the risk of falling, and also said: the reasonable approach is to look long and short, and wait for a sharp drop to place orders at the large-scale support level (53111) to bet on a mid-line rebound. The market minimum is 52550, which is just within reach. After the rise on September 14, it also pointed out that the ideal state is to go sideways for 3 to 5 days before rising again, and the rise will be sustainable; after the price has stepped back to the support range of 58515~57807 that I gave, it is about to reach the mid-line pressure of 62940.
Personally, I think that it is difficult for the pressure level of $62,940 to stabilize at the close. There is a high probability that it will fail to stabilize and then continue to test $56,000 or even lower. Although I don't want to say too much, as an investor, I should be clear and firm when sharing my views. Even if the market has a 50.1% probability of falling and a 49.9% probability of rising, when expressing my views, I will clearly and firmly stand on the side with a higher probability. The above is just a personal subjective opinion for reference only. In addition to the direction of rise and fall, friends should also pay more attention to some key points to refer to the points for operation.
ETH will rise synchronously with BTC, but it is still in a weak position as a whole. The ETH ecosystem is still sluggish, the chain is not active, and the net inflow and outflow of ETFs are not ideal. Pay attention to the breakthrough of BTC during the day. It is expected to continue to rise with BTC. If you hold on, it is expected to reach the 2480-2530 range. Just pay attention to reducing positions for defense at night. The downturn will not continue, and a new round of rising cycle is not far away!
The entire network has a liquidation of 186 million US dollars in the past 24 hours
Against the backdrop of Bitcoin's rise, according to Coinglass data, in the past 24 hours, the total amount of cryptocurrency contracts liquidated across the entire network reached US$186 million, of which US$110 million of short positions accounted for the majority, and a total of more than 67,000 people were liquidated.
However, strictly speaking, the margin call data this morning is not particularly serious. Perhaps investors are hedging in advance, or their liquidation price has not yet been reached. Please be careful that the volatility will be further amplified.
The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 50 basis points in September
The dot plot suggests further rate cuts! It is both unexpected and reasonable. After all, according to market survey expectations, the probability of a 50 basis point rate cut has risen to 60%. The Fed always controls market expectations in this way. A 25 basis point rate cut is dovish. For the market, Fed Chairman Powell emphasized that interest rates will not be cut significantly, but emphasized that policymakers are not in a hurry to cut interest rates significantly, which suppressed precious metal buying. Fortunately, Bitcoin did not immediately rise by 10%+. This state of rising rhythm is also what I am happy to see.
Bitcoin's market share hits a 3.5-year high
However, most investors may not be able to make profits through high-frequency short-term rolling like the whales mentioned above, and are more likely to hold for the long term.
Although Ethereum once broke through $2,400 this morning, it is still weak compared to the increase of Bitcoin. However, a whale who is good at trading in the market spent $13.04 million to buy 5,659 ETH before the Federal Reserve announced a 2-point interest rate cut, and took profit this morning, making a profit in the swing trading for the ninth time.
Except for Ethereum, the overall market performance of other altcoins is not very good, causing Bitcoin's market share to continue to rise. At the time of writing, it has reached 58.5%, the highest level since April 2021.
Usually in the past few rounds of bull markets, the growth of most altcoins will exceed that of Bitcoin, which will drive Bitcoin's market share down. Therefore, some people believe that the collective surge of altcoins, including Ethereum, has not really arrived yet. Will history be repeated this time?
The copycat sector rose synchronously with the mainstream
1. Continue to hold SATS, and clear out the position when it rises to around 50. The mid-term holding can be seen to around 80
2.PEOPLE mid-term forecast will be good before the November election
3. Continue to hold CKB after reducing positions and wait for the ecological explosion
4. PIZZA has a lot of callbacks, and the expectations after FB is launched are not ideal. It is recommended to clear the position and exit when it rebounds to around 4.
For long-term holdings of altcoins, keep them unchanged. For short-term and medium-term holdings, consider reducing some positions in the evening. If there is no obvious decline after the opening of the U.S. stock market, consider medium-term deployment. I will also update and recommend some altcoins worth buying in real time in the small group!
The market is really good now. Brothers, those with negative funding rates must not short sell. Don’t think that it will not rise any further after rising so high. The strong will become stronger. This has been the case with Ckb and Sui in the past two days. Make money steadily, don’t mess around, or you’ll end up losing more than you gain!
