What impact will the US dollar interest rate cut have on us? The interest rate cut was announced on September 19, which is the early morning of this morning. Someone asked me before whether the Fed would cut interest rates this time. My answer is that the Fed will definitely cut interest rates this time, 100%, a sure thing, but there are always people who argue with me, saying that this expert on the Internet said it would not, and that expert said it would not. Although what they said seems to make sense, they are all one-sided. After all, for the United States, with a debt scale of 35 trillion and an interest rate of 5%, if the interest rate is not cut, and the debt scale is expanded by trillions every year, it is not worth the loss for the United States. After all, the United States has spent so much time building the so-called freedom, democracy and integrity in the world. This gorgeous coat, he is not willing to take it off for the time being, so he wants to maintain his dignity and international influence, he will definitely take the path of cutting interest rates!
The first impact is that some banks in the United States will definitely go bankrupt, especially those that mainly rely on foreign deposits. Everyone knows that during the process of the US interest rate hike, a large amount of hot money from all over the world went to the United States for arbitrage. The simplest and most direct way is not to enter the stock market and bond market, but to enter the US bank to deposit money and get interest, because the interest rate is high! After the US interest rate cut this time, this money will definitely flee from the United States. In order to prevent it from fleeing, the Americans have a simplest and most direct way, which is to let the bank go bankrupt directly. Bank closure is reasonable and legal in finance and law. If it goes bankrupt, you don’t have to pay it back directly. This money can’t run away and stays in the United States.
The second impact is that after the US dollar interest rate cut, a large amount of capital will flee to the United States, which is expected to bring $1 trillion in foreign exchange inflows to our Chinese market. Someone asked before, will such a large-scale foreign exchange inflow boost China's real estate development? I saw many people say it will not, and many people say it will, saying that the inflow of funds will make the real estate take off again!
The reasons given by those who say they can't pull are mainly the following:
They say that China does not lack liquidity now, the central bank has been continuously lowering the reserve requirement ratio and interest rates, and China's liquidity is strong enough now, and the interest rates are not very high. Secondly, China has been debt-driven for so many years, and the people are too heavily in debt. The third reason is that China no longer has a demographic dividend and the birth rate is declining.
The reason for supporting the development of the real estate industry is: they feel that China's real estate market is not due to lack of liquidity or demographic dividend issues, but more importantly because the Chinese people have no confidence in the real estate market. Chinese people buy when prices are rising and do not buy when prices are falling. During this cycle of US dollar interest rate hikes, large-scale real estate development companies in China like Evergrande have broken their capital chains, resulting in particularly strong negative signals in the market. Coupled with the superposition of local government debt defaults and the epidemic, real estate prices have plummeted. Over the past four or five years, most of the water in real estate has been squeezed out. Now the Chinese market is not short of money, but what it lacks is confidence. After this US dollar interest rate cut, $1 trillion has flowed into the Chinese market, which has greatly increased the confidence of Chinese investors. Moreover, they believe that real estate is an important link in the asset allocation of the Chinese people, and they will never let the people's pockets be so empty, which will easily lead to internal problems. So next, after the US dollar interest rate cut, China's real estate will definitely rise rapidly in half a year to a year.
Personally, I think that the US dollar interest rate cut will bring a certain degree of rebound to the real estate market, because real estate has been in a downward trend in the past few years, and a large amount of capital injection will restore a certain degree of confidence in the real estate market, and prices will tend to pick up. But don't forget that in China, everything in the market must be policy-oriented. Real estate has begun to de-financialize, which means it is destined to return to its housing attributes. Therefore, the real estate market will not take off, and prices will rise slightly within a reasonable range, but the increase will not be too large, and prices will gradually stabilize in the future. And I think a large amount of capital inflow will flow more to high-tech industries, the most important of which is semiconductors. The reason is actually very simple. If you have 100 billion US dollars to invest in China, would you invest in real estate or semiconductors? There is no doubt that both the policy support direction and the market will make you decide to invest in semiconductors.
The third impact is that the United States will never sit idly by and watch China rise as a great power after cutting interest rates. It will definitely try every means to torment us. Let us review how the United States reaped the world's benefits through the dollar tide after World War II. After raising interest rates, it took money from all over the world, and after cutting interest rates, it bought up assets around the world. However, every time it cuts interest rates, it will do one thing at the same time, which is to launch a regional war. I will not repeat this history for you, but you can look it up if you are interested.
As long as the US dollar rate is lowered, the world will go to war. Now, in the whole world, the big Russia and the second Russia are fighting; in the Middle East, the Arab League and the small Israel are fighting; there is also civil unrest in Africa. Only our surrounding areas are relatively peaceful and stable. The Americans will never let us be so stable. So everyone still remembers that some time ago, Mongolia, which has a population of only a few million, actually said that it would invite the United States to station troops there. India and the United States in our west are also being wooed by it. But I believe that as long as India has not forgotten the New Delhi Defense War in 1961 and 1962, it will not stick its feet in.
The southeastern coast is now in danger. First of all, let me talk about the frogs. To be honest, the frogs can't really make a big wave. Especially after the broadcast of CCTV's "Quenching", it actually told the frogs one thing: don't shout there. Our J-20 stealth fighter has flown over your sky countless times and fought with the United States countless times, and beat them away. You didn't even see it. Do you think it's difficult for us to take you? The reason why we didn't fight you is that we share the same roots and blood.
#图文动态同步大赛# In the southeast direction, the only biggest risk is the Philippines. The Philippines is now a complete puppet state. The Americans are instigating it to keep fighting with us. But this time, the Philippines' warships finally returned after five months of fighting. This is a major benefit for us.
But we must know that the Americans are still determined to destroy us, so here are the things that everyone must pay attention to:
First, banks in the United States will definitely go bankrupt.
Second, hot money will definitely flow into the Chinese market, which will bring about a wave of economic recovery.
Third, around us, it seems calm, but in fact it is turbulent. There will definitely be a war, but don't be afraid. Believe in the wisdom of the country. It must be a quick battle and a quick decision. One punch will open the way before a hundred punches come! After all, we are more than 5,000 years old, and the other side is only a few hundred years old. Calling us grandfathers is considered an advantage for them!#token2049 #币安上线NEIRO #加密市场反弹 #美联储宣布降息50个基点 #鄂B炒家