Tonight is destined to be a turbulent night. The Fed's decision to cut interest rates by 50 basis points was supported by officials' shifting views on the economic outlook. Fed officials now expect the unemployment rate to remain at 4.4% by the end of 2024, compared with their previous forecast of 4% in June. Inflation has also slowed from June in the eyes of Fed officials. They expect 12-month PCE inflation to be 2.3%, while the last dot plot showed 2.6%. This shift in view shows that the Fed is paying more and more attention to the employment aspect of its dual mandate. Waiting for the short position to be untied! In addition, the short-term short position of Bitcoin at 61,300 is making a profit! #美联储宣布降息50个基点 $BTC

Market Analysis: The Fed May Disappoint Extreme Dovish Investors Investors bet that the Fed will cut interest rates sharply this week, but they are likely to be disappointed because the performance of the US economy is not worth the aggressive rate cut at all. According to CME's Fed Watch tool, current US interest rate futures prices show a 65% chance of a 50 basis point rate cut and a 116 basis point rate cut this year. However, a series of economic data on Tuesday prompted the Atlanta Fed to raise its forecast for US GDP growth in the third quarter from 2.6% to 3.0%, indicating that the economy is not that bad. After weighing all factors, the Fed may cut interest rates by 25 basis points, and Powell may reiterate data dependence.

The Fed's dot plot is unlikely to confirm the current pricing of aggressive and rapid rate cuts, but instead show a more measured pace of rate cuts. This may be interpreted as a "hawkish rate cut", forcing investors who have hastily bet on a sharp rate cut to cover their positions.

Currently, everyone is waiting for the Fed's interest rate meeting at 2 a.m. If we look at the liquidation chart, if the market goes up to around 63,000, short positions will be liquidated by 780 million, and if it goes down to 55,000, long positions will be liquidated by 1.9 billion. So how the dog dealer will go is up to each person. It may first pull up a wave, liquidate the shorts, and then turn around and smash the market to harvest the shorts crazily. Anyway, there are too many V-turns recently!

Bitcoin 56,000 short orders can only be smashed by this kind of news. If you are short, don't chase more above 60,000 for the time being. There is no stabilization signal. 61,300 went up and then went down yesterday. There is already a small double top signal at the short-term 4-hour level. My personal opinion for short-term operations is still to focus on high-altitude operations. 61,300 and 61,800 above are empty, with targets of 60,000, 59,000 and 58,000, and defense of 62,300. This is a short-term order. #美联储利率决议公布在即 $BTC