ChainCatcher news, Greeks.live macro researcher Adam published an article on the X platform to analyze that the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision will be released in three hours. According to the current futures data, there is a 60% probability that the interest rate will be cut by 50 basis points, and a 40% probability that the interest rate will be cut by 25 basis points. All markets are focused on this.
From the perspective of cryptocurrency options data, the market divergence is also huge now, with ultra-short-term options IV as high as 70%, and put options IV significantly higher. From the distribution of option transactions, BTC 58000 put and ETH 2200 put transactions are the most intensive. At present, the options market is bearish on the interest rate meeting as a whole. 25 basis points are lower than expected, and 50 basis points indicate a deterioration in economic indicators.